The impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation phases on off‐season maize yield for a subtropical region of Brazil

Abstract

ABSTRACT:In recent years, maize has become one of the main alternative crops for the autumn-winter growing season in the central-western and southeastern regions of Brazil. However, water deficits, sub-optimal temperatures and low solar radiation levels are common problems that are experienced during this growing season by local farmers. One methodology to assess the impact of variable weather conditions on crop production is the use of crop simulation models. The goal of this study was to evaluate the effect of climate variability on maize yield for a subtropical region of Brazil. Specific objectives for this study were (1) to analyse the effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on precipitation and air temperature for four locations in the state of São Paulo and (2) to analyse the impact of ENSO on maize grown off-season for the same four locations using a crop simulation model. For each site, historical weather data were categorised as belonging to one of three phases of ENSO: El Niño (warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific), La Niña (cool sea surface temperature anomalies) or neutral, based on an index derived from observed sea surface temperature anomalies. During El Niño, there is a tendency for an increase in the rainfall amount during May for the four selected locations, and also during April, mainly in three of the locations, resulting in an increase in simulated maize yield planted between February 15 and March 15. In general, there was a decrease in the simulated yield for maize grown off-season during neutral years. This study showed how a crop model can be used to assess the impact of climate variability on the yield of maize grown off-season in a subtropical region of Brazil. The outcomes of this study can be very useful for both policy makers and local farmers for agricultural planning and decision making.

Assessment of NASA/POWER satellite‐based weather system for Brazilian conditions and its impact on sugarcane yield simulation

“…Brazil is located mainly in the tropical zone with several different climates (Alvares et al, 2013) and presents suitable conditions for production of several profitable crops. However, inter-annual crop yield variability is strongly influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (Rodrigues et al, 2011;Zebiak et al, 2015), Pacific decadal oscillation (Kayano and Andreoli, 2007), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (Kayano et al, 2016), drought intensification (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 2014; Marengo and Torres, 2016), resulting anomalous crop yield losses (Soler et al, 2010;Rolim et al, 2015) and * Correspondence to: P. C. Sentelhas, Department of Biosystems Engineering, ESALQ, University of São Paulo, Av. Pádua Dias, 11, 13418-900 Piracicaba, SP, Brazil.…”

Modeling Applied to Sowing Date of Irrigated Maize

“…For the year of 2017, it was estimated that 61.3% of the national maize production will come from the off-season growing period (Acompanhamento da Safra Brasileira [de] Grãos, 2017), which is subjected to uncertainties due to climate elements' variability (Soler et al, 2010). In a study using computer modeling, Cardoso et al (2004) found that rainfed maize sowed off-season in northern Paraná state, Brazil, suffers yield breaks and cycle interruption due to lack of rainfall and low temperatures.…”

Influencia del fenómeno El Niño-La Niña y cambio climático en el patrón de lluvias en São Carlos-SP, Brasil

“…Los resultados de este artículo también concuerdan con un estudio realizado en Campinas-SP, a 130 km de São-Carlos-SP, donde se evaluaron las precipitaciones de 116 años sin encontrar efecto del cambio climático (Blain et al, 2007). Respecto de los efectos del fenómeno ENOS en el área de estudio, los resultados de este trabajo no concuerdan con el realizado por Soler et al (2010) en los municipios de Piracicaba-SP (años 1917-2002 y Ribeirão Preto-SP (años 1965-2002, a 65 y 85 km de São-Carlos-SP, respectivamente), donde se presentó una relación directa entre las precipitaciones y el fenómeno ENOS.…”

“…Diversos autores han analizado las anomalías producidas por ENOS sobre las precipitaciones en diferentes regiones de Brasil. En el estado de Sao Paulo se ha constatado un aumento en la frecuencia y en la precipitación total de lluvias en los meses de abril y mayo en los años de incidencia de «El Niño» (Nunes, 2000;Soler et al, 2010).…”