The impact of economic hardships on the intent to migrate: Micro‐level evidence from Venezuela

Abstract

We examine the impact of various hardships on individual's consideration of migration as a coping mechanism. Previous studies fail to identify the microeconomic drivers of migration during crises, lumping all the potential consequences of a crisis into singular categories. We argue that migration is one of several coping strategies available to individuals and present an empirical model that motivates this proposition. Our approach also suggests that unobserved factors, such as ability, determine both returns to migration as well as the availability of domestic (non‐migration) coping strategies, which curbs migration. We use new survey data covering over 1000 individuals in three large Venezuelan cities. This nation is undergoing a crisis caused by unprecedented levels of hyperinflation, which resulted in the worse migration crisis in Latin American history. We focus on hardships that characterise the Venezuelan situation: food insecurity; scarcity of health products/services; crime; and diminished purchasing power. We marry this information to data on stated preferences over migration. We recognise that individuals may desire to migrate temporarily or permanently and model those choices separately and subsequently treat them as competing options. Our preferred results suggest that falling victim to crime and poor health services motivate migration. We conclude with policy suggestions.

Different trajectories from a common crisis. Survival migrations and resilience of venezuelan adolescents to Peru

“…A first notable element is the accounts of extremely tough living conditions amid the crisis in Venezuela, manifested in long lines to obtain food in limited quantities, difficulties in feeding the entire family, and the impossibility of finding medication for any family members with serious illness. These aspects coincide with recent research on the crisis in this country (Caraballo-Arias et al, 2018; Mazuera-Arias et al, 2020; Posso et al, 2023; Rocha et al, 2022; Van Roekel and De Theije, 2020) and the disproportionate toll it takes on children, adolescents, and their families (Carroll et al, 2020; Clauss-Ehlers, 2019; Pico et al, 2021; Pires et al, 2022; Vargas-Machuca et al, 2019). There were some socioeconomic differences between the adolescents based on their parents’ socio-professional level and type of employment: between those whose parents worked as laborers or as domestic workers and pertained to the popular classes, and those who were entrepreneurs or executives and corresponded to the (upper-) middle class.…”

“…Since 2016 Latin America has witnessed the mass exodus of families from Venezuela as a result of the deteriorating living conditions in their home country. The collapse in the price of petrol; hyperinflation and the contraction of consumption; food and medication shortages; and deficiencies in the supply of public utilities such as water, gas, and electricity were the major components of a humanitarian crisis that precipitated emigration on a scale that the region had not previously experienced (Caraballo-Arias et al, 2018; Gandini et al, 2020; Mazuera-Arias et al, 2020; Posso et al, 2023; Rocha et al, 2022; Van Roekel and De Theije, 2020). In addition to an unprecedented increase in infant mortality during the 2013–2016 period (García et al, 2019), Venezuela’s Living Conditions Survey (Encuesta de Condiciones de Vida, ENCOVI) revealed that 91% of the population were below the poverty line in 2018.…”

Russia-Ukraine Conflict and the Breaking of Hyperinflation in Venezuela

“…Overall inflation averaged 25% over these years, which is not extraordinary by international comparison. Higher oil prices drove this achievement, which increased more than tenfold between 1998 and 2012 [4]. Nevertheless, trade tensions obscured a sharp decrease in productivity, which fell at a 2.2% growth rate.…”

Familias transnacionales en contexto de crisis. Movilidad y (no) arreglos familiares de venezolanos en Perú

“…Desde 2016, la deteriorada situación económica y social en Venezuela ha generado una oleada masiva de emigraciones hacia los países de la región. La disminución del precio del petróleo, la hiperinflación y la contracción del consumo, la escasez de alimentos y medicinas, la falta de servicios públicos, así como los problemas de suministro de agua, gas y electricidad, y las dificultades en materia de seguridad y respeto de los derechos humanos, conforman los principales elementos de lo que se ha denominado una "crisis humanitaria" (Castillo Crasto y Reguant Álvarez, 2017;John, 2019;Mazuera-Arias et al, 2020;Posso et al, 2022;Rocha et al, 2022;Wallace y Mortley, 2021). Este contexto ha provocado en particular un aumento en la mortalidad infantil (García et al, 2019), una generalización de la pobreza y de la inseguridad alimentaria 1 , así como la migración de un gran número de mujeres embarazadas que ya no encontraron las condiciones mínimas de atención médica en su país de origen (Hawkins Rada, 2022).…”