The Impact of Economic Conditions on the Incidence of Arson

Hershbarger, Robert A.; Miller, Ronald K.

doi:10.2307/251678

Cited by 14 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…Early evidence directly relating economic conditions and arson originated in the late 1970s. This prior research used highly aggregated time‐series data to provide evidence on the possible link between national economic conditions and the prevalence of arson (e.g., Hershbarger and Miller, ; Spillman and Zak, ; Cloninger, ). Brotman and Fox (), however, argue and provide evidence the prior relation in the earlier time‐series research was an artifact of spurious regressions, and then provide their own cross‐sectional evidence of no relation existing using 1 year of arson estimates in 32 states.…”

Section: Review Of Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our knowledge of whether a relation exists between arson and macroeconomic conditions is limited to a relatively small number of studies beginning with Hershbarger and Miller (), Spillman and Zak (), and Cloninger (). This early research found limited and conflicting evidence using highly aggregated national arson estimates where other unobserved trends may also be present, as highlighted by Brotman and Fox ().…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A BURNING QUESTION: DOES ARSON INCREASE WHEN LOCAL HOUSE PRICES DECLINE?

Eriksen¹,

Carson²

2015

J of Risk & Insurance

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We construct panel data on house prices and the determined cause of 4.8 million individual fires in the United States between 1986 and 2010 to test whether decreases in local housing market prices coincided with increases in arson. Since some insured homeowners may attempt to disguise the actual cause of fire as accidental, we also examine how decreases in local house prices are associated with changes in the total number of fires and the probability of determined causes of accidental fires. For the sample period, our results suggest that declines in local house prices coincided with increases in arson, the total number of fires, and the probability that fires were determined to occur due to arson and misuse. We provide further support for the existence of such an effect with empirical evidence that the relation between declines in house prices and arson is stronger in states that allow mortgage lender recourse.

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Section: Review Of Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A BURNING QUESTION: DOES ARSON INCREASE WHEN LOCAL HOUSE PRICES DECLINE?

Eriksen¹,

Carson²

2015

J of Risk & Insurance

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“…On peut citer, par exemple, Hershbarger et Miller (1978), lesquels établissent que l'incendie criminel à motif économique dépend essentiellement de six facteurs (soit les faillites commerciales ou ÉTUDE DE CERTAINS DÉTERMINANTS DES INCENDIES 75 VOLONTAIRES À MONTRÉAL personnelles, le besoin perçu d'éliminer la concurrence, les opérations immobilières dans les quartiers défavorisés, le taux de vacance des immeubles, les conflits de travail et enfin le désir des criminels de cacher leurs crimes). Citons encore Cloninger (1978), qui démontre que l'incendie criminel constitue souvent la façon optimale de se défaire d'une propriété, compte tenu des rendements et des risques et que les pertes monétaires dues aux incendies peuvent être prédites par une étude des caractéristiques des populations concernées.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Étude de certains déterminants des incendies volontaires à Montréal

Vallée¹,

Dupuis²

2005

crimino

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Research into the determining factors in arson cases has traditionally focused on factors linked to the characteristics of the burned building. One of our basic hypotheses is that deliberately set fires also have an underlying economic motivation. In this case, the present study confirms the hypothesis that there appears to be an indisputable link between the unemployment rate and mortgage burdens and arson rates, regardless of the phase of the economic cycle in which the arson occurs. Moreover, the study corroborates the idea that increased surveillance is necessary in areas presenting a higher risk of fraud and having a specific socioeconomic and financial profile. A lower incidence of arson and the improvement of insurers ' ability to predict losses due to arson could lead to a significant reduction in the number of claims, and consequently, in the amount of premiums. By looking more specifically at the economic motivations influencing arson throughout the different phases of the economic cycle, this study evokes the establisment of a forecasting system that would allow insurance companies to identify the areas of Montreal that present a higher risk level for arson, thus allowing them to establish their rates in a more equitable manner.

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