The Impact of Ecological Governance on Industrial Structure Upgrading under the Dual Carbon Target

Abstract

Under China’s goal of “carbon neutrality”, appropriate ecological governance is crucial for upgrading the industrial structure, and too strict or loose governance will have a negative effect. In order to find the optimal range for ecological governance efforts, the concept of the industrial low-carbon index was defined based on the comparison of industrial carbon emissions and output value. The industrial structure was measured from two dimensions: overall upgrading and internal optimization of the industry. We innovatively use multiple indicators to represent the core explanatory variables and use the coefficient of variation method to calculate them. A threshold regression model for ecological governance and industrial structure based on the above indicator system was built, using indicator data from 288 cities in China over the past 15 years for empirical analysis. The study found that (1) ecological governance has a threshold effect on the overall upgrading and internal optimization of the industrial structure, and overall efforts need to be increased for ecological governance; (2) the governance intensity for different cities needs to be determined according to their economic levels and local conditions; and (3) the industrial structure gap among cities will gradually narrow, and the overall development tends to be balanced.

Trend Analysis of the Impact of Ecological Governance on Industrial Structural Upgrading under the Dual Carbon Target

“…The ecological governance intensity (EG) is calculated by synthesizing nine tertiary indicators, including governance investment, pollutant treatment rate, and other cause indicators, as well as carbon emissions, industrial pollutant emissions, and other result indicators, comprehensively reflecting the investment intensity and governance effect of regional ecological governance [2]. Based on the economic level of cities, the cities were classified into three categories: developed cities, moderately developed cities, and underdeveloped cities.…”

“…The changes in the indices of industrial structure upgrading and industrial decarbonization are influenced by both the core explanatory variables and control variables [2]. Therefore, it is not suitable to use a single time series forecasting model to predict the dependent variables.…”

“…Exploring the relationship between ecological governance and industrial structural upgrading reveals that the implementation of ecological governance measures can promote the upgrading and transformation of industrial structure. Two modes of the role of ecological governance in promoting industrial structural upgrading, namely overall upgrading and internal optimization, have been validated [2]. However, there is currently a severe lack of assessment regarding the effectiveness of implementing policies after the government adopts the principles and recommendations of ecological governance for industrial structural upgrading.…”

Evaluation of fiscal policy with text mining under "dual carbon" target in China

“…This involves a massive transition and phase-out mechanism for the extensive coal-powered industry, as well as the construction and upgrade of technologies and facilities for renewable energy. Enhancing the rigor of ecological governance in the future is expected to promote the upgrading of China's industrial structure, which, in turn, holds considerable potential for internal optimization [ 1 ].The accomplishment of carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets will not only boost societal awareness of low-carbon efficiency and green development but will also guide industrial upgrades and technological innovations. Importantly, it demonstrates the proactive stance of a major developing country in addressing global climate change to the international community.…”