The impact of earthquakes on the intention to move: Fight or flight?

Abstract

The extraction of natural gas in the north of the Netherlands has led to soil subsidence and the occurrence of earthquakes. Residents worry about the safety of their families and the saleability of their dwelling and might want to move. The goal is to examine whether the earthquakes are related to the intention to move. A survey among residents in the area was carried out in 2015. The results show that the intention to move is influenced by age, education, household size, length of residence and attachment to the region. In addition, there is an effect of experience of earthquakes, which is mediated by psychological distress (anxiety, insecurity and concern). We conclude that the way in which residents handle the earthquake experience determines their intention to move, not the experience in itself. This provides opportunities to prevent out-migration by supporting residents and by providing them psychological care and security regarding the value and saleability of their dwellings.

Key factors on migration assuming disaster risk of a megathrust earthquake:

“…Studies based on detailed social surveys have indicated that whether to migrate in the event of a disaster is not determined on the basis of the disaster's physical or ecological severity, but rather on how the experience was handled psychologically (Jansen, Hoekstra, & Boumeester, 2017). Accordingly, it is important to examine the factors impacting migration as a means of mitigating risks related to disasters in Japan, where additional Nankai megathrust earthquakes are predicted to occur in the future.…”

‘To buy or not to buy a home in a rural risk area’ by mid-to-later life home purchasers

“…Our analysis further reveals that an important earthquake condition is the fact that a mid-tolater life homebuyer who has experienced earthquakes in the previous residence, is more likely to buy a property in the earthquake area (again). Instead of the expected 'flight', residents apparently still 'fight' and actually relocate in the risk area (Jansen et al, 2017). Hunter (2005) attributes this relocation in the case of natural and technological hazards to environmental factors, household characteristics and insiders' risk perception.…”

“…Some dwellings are damaged beyond repair, causing the region to be less attractive for residents and migrants as a residential area. A combination of safety risks, fear, damage to the image of the region (Jansen & Boelhouwer, 2016) and the perceived quality of life (Boelhouwer & Van der Heijden, 2018;Jansen et al, 2017) might have negative consequences for the economic perspective of the area, and therefore, also have an impact on the regional housing market. That said, Porcelli & Trezzi (2019) found evidence in their study following 22 earthquakes in 95 Italian provinces that in most cases the influence on economic indicators is small.…”

“…For instance, we expect that the decision to buy a home in the earthquake region, will be influenced by the year of purchase of the home over the period 17 August 2012 until 2019. Over time people may have gradually become aware of the impact of the earthquakes due to the first formal acknowledgement of the risk of the earthquakes and the possible damage to the houses in the region by the government in January 2013 (Jansen et al, 2017). The government regulations, namely the Value Decrease Scheme (see Sect.…”

“…A common feature of international studies on housing and housing markets in risk areas is that the emphasis is placed on the devaluation of the house prices (Mueller et al, 2009;Koster & Van Ommeren, 2015;Zhang et al, 2010;Boelhouwer & Van der Heijden 2018;Durán, 2022), place attachment of residents in relation to natural or induced hazards (Bonaiuto et al, 2016;De Dominicis et al, 2015;Jansen, 2020), and coping strategies of the residents (Jansen et al, 2017;De Dominicis et al, 2015). Rather than focusing on the housing market or on the residents in a risk area, the present study explores 'who' actually moves to 'which dwelling' in a residential hazardous environment, with a special focus on midto-later life homebuyers of 50 years and older.…”