The Impact of Different Weather Files on London Detached Residential Building Performance—Deterministic, Uncertainty, and Sensitivity Analysis on CIBSE TM48 and CIBSE TM49 Future Weather Variables Using CIBSE TM52 as Overheating Criteria

Abstract

Though uncertainties of input variables may have significant implications on building simulations, they are quite often not identified, quantified, or included in building simulations results. This paper considers climatic deterministic, uncertainty, and sensitivity analysis through a series of simulations using the CIBSE UKCIP02 future weather years, CIBSE TM48 for design summer years (DSYs), and the latest CIBSE TM49 DSY future weather data which incorporates the UKCP09 projections to evaluate the variance and the impact of differing London future weather files on indoor operative temperature of a detached dwelling in the United Kingdom using the CIBSE TM52 overheating criteria. The work analyses the variability of comparable weather data set to identify the most influential weather parameters that contribute to thermal comfort implications for these dwellings. The choice of these weather files is to ascertain their differences, as their development is underpinned by different climatic projections. The overall pattern of the variability of the UKCIP02 and UKCP09 Heathrow weather data sets under Monte Carlo sensitivity consideration do not seem to be very different from each other. The deterministic results show that the operative temperatures of the UKCIP02 are slightly higher than those of UKCP09, with the UKCP09 having a narrow range of operative temperatures. The Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis quantified and affirmed the dry bulb and radiant temperatures as the most influential weather parameters that affect thermal comfort on dwellings.

Overheating and energy use in urban office buildings in a warming climate

“…In fact, the study shows that these two releases have shown no significant differences in assessing buildings' resiliency to climate change. For instance, overheating in present and future climatic scenarios employing both the CIBSE releases for all 14 UK locations sways little with similar findings in other published literature 16–18 . Even the absence of future high temporal resolution data with degree‐day and dynamic simulation methods predict heating demand within a few percentiles of one another while cooling demand was slightly varied due to the examined region's low yearly cooling requirement 19 .…”

“…Thus, For instance, overheating in present and future climatic scenarios employing both the CIBSE releases for all 14 UK locations sways little with similar findings in other published literature. [16][17][18] Even the absence of future high temporal resolution data with degree-day and dynamic simulation methods predict heating demand within a few percentiles of one another while cooling demand was slightly varied due to the examined region's low yearly cooling requirement. 19 Furthermore, the room temperature profile for a naturally ventilated office building is much worse than a predicted 2050s medium-high emission scenario.…”

The Impact of High-Resolution Climatic Data on Building Energy Simulation

“…A readily acceptable methodology should produce an output of weather datasets that is based on the currently used datasets and augment the use of standardized weather datasets for building energy simulation and thermal performance analysis [73]. Table A in Appendix D presents all 32 weather inputs with their units and probability distributions range for uncertainty and sensitivity.…”

The Impact and mitigation of Climate Change on the building performance of nonresidential buildings: Case studies of typical UK supermarkets

“…This certification does not only have environmental benefits to it. It is also observed that having such certification increases the sale price, rent costs and occupancy premiums [10], along with the obvious benefits of saving operational energy costs and lower maintenance costs. The credits associated with green buildings LCA show a reduction of the material life cycle impacts as compared to the baseline model of the building.…”