The impact of detailed urban-scale processing on the composition, distribution, and radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols

Cohen, Jason Blake; Prinn, Ronald G.; Wang, Chen

doi:10.1029/2011gl047417

Cited by 44 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Furthermore, both the aerosol and dynamical modules are interconnected with a metamodel of urban‐scale processing of aerosols and their precursors. This metamodel computes the quantitative impact of nonlinear urban‐scale chemical and physical processing on aerosols, allowing for this to be taken into consideration even though the model is of global spatial and temporal resolution [ Cohen et al ., ; Cohen and Prinn , ].…”

Section: Methodological Framework Used In This Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The other component for performing the inversion is a suitable global model that can simulate values of BC AAOD and BC surface concentration that correspond with the respective measurements of BC AAOD and BC surface concentration (vectors y o k and ε k ) at the same location and time. For this work, we have chosen to use the MIT AERO‐URBAN model [ Kim et al ., ; Cohen et al ., ], a state‐of‐the‐art modeling system that simulates the chemistry and transport at regional to global scales. The model includes a 3‐D general circulation model derived from the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) version 3.1 [ Collins et al ., ].…”

Section: Methodological Framework Used In This Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Interactions of BC with solar radiation lead to changes in the net energy budget of the Earth. At the top of the atmosphere, estimated global radiative forcing of BC covers a broad range of values as computed by a range of models using many different assumptions, though all positive (i.e., a net warming), ranging from low to high, which includes the following: 0.25 ± 0.15 [ Forster et al ., ], 0.26 [ Kim et al ., ], 0.35 [ Wang , ; Cohen et al ., ], 0.53 [ Ming et al ., ], 0.6 [ Chung and Seinfeld , ], 0.62 [ Jacobson , ], and 0.9 [ Ramanathan and Carmichael , ] W/m 2 . BC has been shown to directly heat the atmosphere through its strong absorption of visible sunlight (unlike many other aerosol species which do not absorb visible radiation).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimating global black carbon emissions using a top‐down Kalman Filter approach

2014

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[1] Black carbon (BC) is an important aerosol constituent in the atmosphere and climate forcer. A good understanding of the radiative forcing of BC and associated climate feedback and response is critical to minimize the uncertainty in predicting current and future climate influenced by anthropogenic aerosols. One reason for this uncertainty is that current emission inventories of BC are mostly obtained from the so-called bottom-up approach, an approach that derives emissions based on categorized emitting sources and emission factors used to convert burning mass to emissions. In this work, we provide a first global-scale top-down estimation of global BC emissions, as well as an estimated error range, by using a Kalman Filter. This method uses data of both column aerosol absorption optical depth and surface concentrations from global and regional networks to constrain our fully coupled climate-aerosol-urban model and thus to derive an optimized estimate of BC emissions as 17.8 ± 5.6 Tg/yr, a factor of more than 2 higher than commonly used global BC emissions data sets. We further perform 22 additional optimization simulations that incorporate the known uncertain ranges of various important physical, model, and measurement parameters and still yield an optimized value within the above given range, from a low of 14.6 Tg/yr to a high of 22.2 Tg/yr. Furthermore, we show that the emissions difference between our optimized and a priori estimation is not uniform, with East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe underestimated, while North America is overestimated in the a priori inventory.

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Section: Methodological Framework Used In This Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodological Framework Used In This Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimating global black carbon emissions using a top‐down Kalman Filter approach

2014

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“…Also, the atmospheric life cycles of air pollutants, such as CO, NO x , and volatile organic compounds, as well as some climatically important species (e.g., CH 4 , sulfate aerosols) are closely linked (23, 24) (SI Text 6). To help unravel the interactions and assess the effects of air pollution on ecosystems and human health, emissions in urban areas are input into an urban-scale air chemistry module, whereas those outside urban areas are input into the global model (17,18,23,24). Failure to simulate the chemical reactions occurring in large cities leads to significant overestimation of global aerosol levels (24) and tropospheric NO x and ozone concentrations (23,25).…”

Section: Integrated Global System Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development and application of earth system models

Prinn

2012

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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The global environment is a complex and dynamic system. Earth system modeling is needed to help understand changes in interacting subsystems, elucidate the influence of human activities, and explore possible future changes. Integrated assessment of environment and human development is arguably the most difficult and most important "systems" problem faced. To illustrate this approach, we present results from the integrated global system model (IGSM), which consists of coupled submodels addressing economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics, and ecosystem processes. An uncertainty analysis implies that without mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise between 3.5°C and 7.4°C from 1981-2000 to 2091-2100 (90% confidence limits). Polar temperatures, absent policy, are projected to rise from about 6.4°C to 14°C (90% confidence limits). Similar analysis of four increasingly stringent climate mitigation policy cases involving stabilization of greenhouse gases at various levels indicates that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes. The IGSM is also used to elucidate potential unintended environmental consequences of renewable energy at large scales. There are significant reasons for attention to climate adaptation in addition to climate mitigation that earth system models can help inform. These models can also be applied to evaluate whether "climate engineering" is a viable option or a dangerous diversion. We must prepare young people to address this issue: The problem of preserving a habitable planet will engage present and future generations. Scientists must improve communication if research is to inform the public and policy makers better.climate change | energy and environment | climate policy A wide range of everyday human activity affects our environment: food production, transportation, manufacturing, urban development, population growth, supplying potable water, and waste disposal. The environmental effects include climate change, urban air pollution, lowered water quality, land degradation, ecosystem disruption, and human health. The climate issue exemplifies the challenge for sustaining a habitable earth. To forecast climate change and develop sound responses, we need to couple the human and natural components of the earth system. Such integrated assessments have many additional potential benefits: discovery of new interactions among natural and human climate system components, objective assessment of uncertainty in economic and climate projections, critical and quantitative analysis of policy proposals, and understanding connections to other science and policy issues (e.g., air pollution). Today, there are very significant policy debates regarding global climate change within most nations, contentious negotiations under the Framework Convention on Climate Change, and periodic assessments under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (1-3).Over the past 2 centuries, the concentrations of carbon dioxide and ma...

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“…Another potential source of the model deficiencies is a lack of urban-scale processing in the models. Cohen et al (2011) demonstrated that ignoring urban processing increases the global average AOD significantly. The fact that the models under-simulate AOD means that ignoring urban processing is more than offset by the factors contributing to low biases.…”

Section: Global Aerosol Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationship between fine-mode AOD and precipitation on seasonal and interannual time scales

Jeoung

Chung

Noije

2014

Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology

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A B S T R A C T On seasonal and interannual time scales, weather is highly influential in aerosol variability. In this study, we investigate the relationship between fine-mode AOD (fAOD) and precipitation on these scales, in order to unravel the effect of wet weather on aerosol amount. We find with integrated satellite and ground observations that biomass burning related fAOD has a relatively greater seasonal variation than fossil fuel combustion related fAOD. It is also found that wet weather reduces biomass burning fAOD and increases fossil fuel combustion fAOD. Aerosol simulation models forced by reanalyses consistently simulate the biomass burning fAOD reduced during wet weather but only in the tropics and furthermore do not consistently increase fossil fuel combustion fAOD during wet conditions. The identified relationship between fAOD and precipitation in observations allows for seasonal predictability of fAOD, since average precipitation can be predicted a few to several months in advance due to the well-established predictability of El Nin˜o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We reveal ENSO-covariant fAOD using a rotated component principal analysis of combined interannual variation of sea surface temperature, precipitation and fAOD. During the warm phase of ENSO, we find that fAOD increases over Indonesia and the eastern coastal area of China, and decreases over South Asia, the Amazon and the continental parts of China.

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The impact of detailed urban-scale processing on the composition, distribution, and radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols

Cited by 44 publications

References 22 publications

Estimating global black carbon emissions using a top‐down Kalman Filter approach

Estimating global black carbon emissions using a top‐down Kalman Filter approach

Development and application of earth system models

Relationship between fine-mode AOD and precipitation on seasonal and interannual time scales

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