The impact of cross-reactive immunity on the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants

Thompson, Robin N; Southall, Emma; Daon, Yair; Lovell-Read, Francesca A.; Iwami, Shingo; Thompson, Craig; Obolski, Uri

doi:10.3389/fimmu.2022.1049458

Cited by 7 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…In the absence of antigen testing, accounting for heterogeneity in within-host dynamics between different hosts generally gave rise to a lower outbreak risk estimate compared to that obtained under the assumption of homogeneous within-host dynamics, while the estimates using both versions of our multi-scale approach were higher than a commonly used outbreak risk estimate that does not account for within-host dynamics (13–19) ( Figure 4B ). These results are consistent with previous comparisons of the outbreak risk between models with different infectious period distributions (20) or offspring distributions (48), although previous studies did not consider variations in infectiousness during infection.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 79%

“…While the outbreak risk can be estimated by simulating a stochastic epidemic model a large number of times (and calculating the proportion of simulations in which a large outbreak occurs), branching process theory can also be used to derive outbreak risk estimates analytically (12). A commonly used formula in the applied epidemic modelling literature (13)(14)(15)(16)(17)(18)(19) is ሺOutbreak riskሻ ൌ 1 െ 1/ܴ (whenever the basic reproduction number, ܴ 1; when ܴ 1, the outbreak risk is zero). However, this formula relies on simplistic assumptions, including each infected individual having constant infectiousness throughout an exponentially distributed infectious period.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of the risk and pre-emptive control of viral outbreaks accounting for within-host dynamics: SARS-CoV-2 antigen testing as a case study

Hart

Park

Jeong

et al. 2023

Preprint

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In the era of living with COVID-19, the risk of localised SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks remains. Here, we develop a multi-scale modelling framework for estimating the local outbreak risk for a viral disease (the probability that a major outbreak results from a single case introduced into the population), accounting for within-host viral dynamics. Compared to population-level models previously used to estimate outbreak risks, our approach enables more detailed analysis of how the risk can be mitigated through pre-emptive interventions such as antigen testing. Considering SARS-CoV-2 as a case study, we quantify the within-host dynamics using data from individuals with omicron variant infections. We demonstrate that regular antigen testing reduces, but may not eliminate, the outbreak risk, depending on characteristics of local transmission. In our baseline analysis, daily antigen testing reduces the outbreak risk by 45% compared to a scenario without antigen testing. Additionally, we show that accounting for heterogeneity in within-host dynamics between individuals affects outbreak risk estimates and assessments of the impact of antigen testing. Our results therefore highlight important factors to consider when using multi-scale models to design pre-emptive interventions against SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 79%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the risk and pre-emptive control of viral outbreaks accounting for within-host dynamics: SARS-CoV-2 antigen testing as a case study

Hart

Park

Jeong

et al. 2023

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…A faster immunity waning, can be considered by modifying the compartment model to a SIRS model. Another possibility is the emergence of new variants that evade the immunity caused by previous variants ( Thompson et al, 2023 ). Such new variants would not affect our method if the immunity against previous strains can prevent severe symptoms.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An adaptive testing strategy for efficient utilization of healthcare resources during an epidemic

Balakrishnan

Palathingal

2023

Journal of Theoretical Biology

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“…However, in a more realistic scenario in which cross-reactive immunity is partial, the novel variants can invade, even if they are less transmissible than previously circulating viruses. This is because partial cross-reactive immunity effectively increases the pool of susceptible hosts that are available to the novel variant compared with that of complete cross-reactive immunity [ 17 ]. Once the earlier infection with the antigenically related virus assists the establishment of infection with the novel variant, then even variants with very limited transmissibility can invade the host population [ 17 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 Viral Infection on Immunoglobulin-IgG Cross-Reactivity

et al. 2023

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Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has posed a considerable threat to public health and global economies. SARS-CoV-2 has largely affected a vast world population and was declared a COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, with a substantial surge of SARS-CoV-2 infection affecting all aspects of the virus’ natural course of infection and immunity. The cross-reactivity between the different coronaviruses is still a knowledge gap in the understanding of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This study aimed to investigate the impact of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 viral infections on immunoglobulin-IgG cross-reactivity. Our retrospective cohort study hypothesized the possible reactivation of immunity in individuals with a history of infection to Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) when infected with SARS-CoV-2. The total number of participants included was 34; among them, 22 (64.7%) were males, and 12 (35.29%) were females. The mean age of the participants was 40.3 ± 12.9 years. This study compared immunoglobulin (IgG) levels against SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV across various groups with various histories of infection. The results showed that a reactive borderline IgG against both MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 in participants with past infection to both viruses was 40% compared with 37.5% among those with past infection with MERS-CoV alone. Our study results establish that individuals infected with both SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV showed higher MERS-CoV IgG levels compared with those of individuals infected previously with MERS-CoV alone and compared with those of individuals in the control. The results further highlight cross-adaptive immunity between MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. Our study concludes that individuals with previous infections with both MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 showed significantly higher MERS-CoV IgG levels compared with those of individuals infected only with MERS-CoV and compared with those of individuals in the control, suggesting cross-adaptive immunity between MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV.

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The impact of cross-reactive immunity on the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants

Cited by 7 publications

References 64 publications

Analysis of the risk and pre-emptive control of viral outbreaks accounting for within-host dynamics: SARS-CoV-2 antigen testing as a case study

Analysis of the risk and pre-emptive control of viral outbreaks accounting for within-host dynamics: SARS-CoV-2 antigen testing as a case study

An adaptive testing strategy for efficient utilization of healthcare resources during an epidemic

Impact of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 Viral Infection on Immunoglobulin-IgG Cross-Reactivity

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