The impact of COVID-19 on future public transport use in Scotland

Systematic literature review on impacts of COVID-19 pandemic and corresponding measures on mobility

“… Dingil & Esztergár-Kiss ( 2021 ) International Multinomial model Survey Overall mobility Public transport users are 31.5, 10.6, and 6.9 times more likely to change their commuting transport mode than car users, motorcycle users, & walkers, respectively. Downey et al ( 2022 ) Scotland Bivariate probit model Survey Public transport Over a third expect to use buses (36%) and trains (34%) less, whilst a quarter expect to drive their cars more. Fatmi ( 2020 ) Canada (Kelowna) Comparative analysis Daily activities survey Overall mobility Individuals’ participation in out-of-home activities were reduced by more than 50%.…”

“…Many studies conducted preference surveys and demonstrated significant travel behavior changes with different perspectives and impacts on sociodemographic groups (Ferreira et al 2022;Javadinasr et al 2022;Szczepanek and Kruszyna 2022;Downey et al 2022;Zhou et al 2022;Currie et al 2021;Echaniz et al 2021;Abdullah et al 2020;Morita et al 2020;Tan and Ma 2021;Shakibaei et al 2020;Ghader et al 2020;Przybylowski et al 2021;Pan et al 2020). All survey results indicated that the pandemic impacted mode choice behavior, with people avoiding crowded places to maintain social distance, which resulted in significantly reduced public transport and shared mobility demand owing to health concerns, and increased dependence on private vehicles (Oestreich et al 2023;Nian et al 2020).…”

What can bring transit ridership back: An econometric study on the potential of usage incentives and operational policies in the Greater Toronto Area

“…Another study, using a similar modelling approach, remarked that considering travel well-being instead of travel satisfaction would be more insightful for post-pandemic transit service planning ( Wang and Gao, 2022 ). In addition, Downey et al’s random parameter bivariate probit model identified potential factors such as pre-lockdown travel choices, COVID-19 risk perception, household size and region significantly, which could affect an individual’s preference towards future public transit usage in Scotland ( Downey et al, 2022 ). Policies addressing mode-specific safety concerns along with reliable and consistent transit service were also influential in reviving some of this lost transit demand ( Mashrur et al, 2022 ).…”

Factors affecting public transport performance due to the COVID-19 outbreak: A worldwide analysis

“…Even after the relaxation of lockdown measures in the fall of 2020 and the vaccination campaigns, PT systems continued to suffer from ridership losses ( Fernández Pozo et al, 2022 ; Monterde-I-bort et al, 2022 ; Vickerman, 2021 ), at least in the short run. Recent research findings show that an important share of former PT passengers is not anymore satisfied by PT cleanliness and safety and intend to permanently switch to private transport modes ( Downey et al, 2022 ; Przybylowski et al, 2021 ; Torbacki, 2021 ). Due to teleworking and increased COVID-19 safety concerns, many researchers argue that the future of PT is at stake and people will increasingly prefer private cars over PT ( Christidis et al, 2021 ; Medlock et al, 2021 ; Munawar et al, 2021 ; Semple et al, 2022 ; Ton et al, 2022 ).…”