The impact of COVID-19 on trips to urban amenities: Examining travel behavior changes in Somerville, MA

Abstract

While there has been much speculation on how the pandemic has affected work location patterns and home location choices, there is sparse evidence regarding the impacts that COVID-19 has had on amenity visits in American cities, which typically constitute over half of all urban trips. Using aggregate app-based GPS positioning data from smartphone users, this study traces the changes in amenity visits in Somerville, MA from January 2019 to December 2020, describing how visits to particular types of amenities have changed as a result of business closures during the public health emergency. Has the pandemic fundamentally shifted amenity-oriented travel behavior or is consumer behavior returning to pre-pandemic trends? To address this question, we calibrate discrete choice models that are suited to Census block-group level analysis for each of the 24 months in a two-year period, and use them to analyze how visitors’ behavioral responses to various attributes of amenity clusters have shifted during different phases of the pandemic. Our findings suggest that in the first few months of the pandemic, amenity-visiting preferences significantly diverged from expected patterns. Even though overall trip volumes remained far below normal levels throughout the remainder of the year, preferences towards specific cluster attributes mostly returned to expected levels by September 2020. We also construct two scenarios to explore the implications of another shutdown and a full reopening, based on November 2020 consumer behavior. While government restrictions have played an important role in reducing visits to amenity clusters, our results imply that cautionary consumer behavior has played an important role as well, suggesting a likely long and slow path to economic recovery. By drawing on mobile phone location data and behavioral modeling, this paper offers timely insights to help decision-makers understand how this unprecedented health emergency is affecting amenity-related trips and where the greatest needs for intervention and support may exist.

Changes in mobility amid the COVID-19 pandemic in Sapporo City, Japan: An investigation through the relationship between spatiotemporal population density and urban facilities

“…Regarding outdoor activities and medical visits, Semple et al (2021) found that the frequency of outdoor exercise trips dropped by up to 46.4 % in Scotland during the lockdown, whereas Kumagai (2021) reported a decline in physician visits in Japan because of the outbreak. Likewise, a substantial decrease in trip volume was found at amenities and grocery stores in the US ( Sevtsuk et al, 2021 , Wang et al, 2020 ). The above studies’ findings would be valuable for identifying the relationship between the outbreak, restriction policies, and mobility changes.…”

In-person, pick up or delivery? Evolving patterns of household spending behavior through the early reopening phase of the COVID-19 pandemic

“…This inertia – or lack thereof – is important to understand as spending patterns through various channels are closely intertwined with the demand for travel. Thereby, these shifts in purchase behaviors and spending channels are posited to trigger changes in both travel and freight patterns for delivery (Figliozzi & Unnikrishnan, 2021a; Sevtsuk et al, 2021 ), highlighting the importance of understanding household expenditure for transportation planning and analysis. Indeed, as more customers shifted to conducting activities online and at home, including shopping, entertainment, and dining, demand for personal transport greatly decreased at least in the early stages of the pandemic, while goods movement associated with online purchase deliveries increased ( Unnikrishnan & Figliozzi, 2021 ).…”

Behavioral changes during the pandemic worsened income diversity of urban encounters

“…Various non-pharmaceutical interventions imposed by governments and agencies have enforced people to substantially change their lifestyles and reduce daily activity patterns, reducing trips to urban amenities such as restaurants, bars, and entertainment establishments 19 . While such behavior changes have had significant impacts on our physical health and activities 20,21 and mental wellbeing 22 , studies have also suggested their impact on social encounters in urban environments, affecting the social fabric of cities we live in 23 .…”