The Impact of COVID-19 on Lung Cancer Incidence in England

Gysling, S; Morgan, Helen; Ifesemen, Onosi Sylvia; West, Douglas; Conibear, John; Navani, Neal; O’Dowd, Emma; Baldwin, David R; Humes, David; Hubbard, Richard

doi:10.1016/j.chest.2023.01.008

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Incidence rates reported here are broadly in line with National Cancer Statistics and Rapid Cancer Registration Databases[23], [24], [25]. Furthermore, for age and sex, studies have reported higher incidence rates in males compared to females and higher incidence with increasing age peaking in those aged 80 to 89 years of age in line with our estimates.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Incidence, prevalence, and survival of lung cancer in the United Kingdom from 2000-2021: a population-based cohort study

Corby,

Barclay,

Tan

et al. 2024

Preprint

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BackgroundLung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-associated mortality worldwide. In the UK, there has been a major reduction in smoking, the leading risk factor for lung cancer, as well as the introduction of the new screening in 2023. Therefore, an up-to-date assessment of the trends of lung cancer is required in the UK.MethodsWe performed a population-based cohort study using the UK primary care Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD database, compared with CPRD Aurum. Participants aged 18+ years, with one-year of prior data availability, were included. We estimated lung cancer incidence rates (IR), period prevalence (PP), and survival at one-, five– and ten years after diagnosis using the Kaplan-Meier method.ResultsOverall, 11,388,117 participants, with 45,563 lung cancer cases were studied. The incidence rate of lung cancer was 52.0 (95% CI 51.5 to 52.5) per 100,000 person-years, with incidence increasing from 2000 to 2021, especially in females aged over 50, and males aged over 80, with the highest incidence rate in people aged 80-89. Period prevalence in 2021 was 0.18%, with the largest rise seen in participants aged over 60. Median survival post-diagnosis increased from 6.6 months in those diagnosed between 2000-2004 to 10 months between 2015-2019. Both short and long-term survival was higher in younger cohorts, with 82.7% one-year survival in those aged 18-29, versus 24.2% in the age 90+ cohort. Throughout the study period, survival was longer in females, with a larger increase in survival over time than in males.ConclusionThe incidence and prevalence of lung cancer diagnoses in the UK have increased, especially in female and older populations, with a small increase in median survival. With the introduction of the UK lung cancer screening programme, this study will enable future comparisons of overall disease burden, so the overall impact may be seen.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Incidence, prevalence, and survival of lung cancer in the United Kingdom from 2000-2021: a population-based cohort study

Corby,

Barclay,

Tan

et al. 2024

Preprint

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“…The decline in the number of lung cancers, as reported by Skovlund et al, [2] may reflect their use of the Danish National Patient Registry as a data source, as registration of cancer diagnoses in the Danish National Patient Registry is known to be delayed for months, for at least 5% of lung cancer diagnoses [25] . Compared to Sweden and the UK, our findings of constant numbers of lung cancer cases is noteworthy, as both Sweden and the UK experienced a large decline in the spring of 2020, which did not compensate later in the year [5] , [6] .…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 52%

“…Studies have indicated that the number of diagnosed lung cancer cases declined during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic [1] , [2] , [3] , [4] , [5] , [6] . A Danish study showed a 10% reduction in lung cancer cases from April to May 2020 and a 4% reduction from March to December 2020 [2] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diagnosis and treatment of lung cancer in Denmark during the COVID-19 pandemic

Olesen¹,

Rasmussen²,

Jakobsen³

et al. 2023

Cancer Epidemiology

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“…The COVID-19 pandemic declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2020 has resulted in a sudden, dramatic change in accessibility. The impact of these restrictions on lung cancer detection has been shown for example by a direct comparison of the number of lung cancer cases in the UK during lockdowns in 2020 and the same period of 2019 [ 21 ], reporting a 26% decrease during the pandemic. A 14.4% decrease in lung cancer incidence has also been observed for Hungary, together with decrease in breast and colorectal cancer patient numbers [ 22 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decreasing incidence and mortality of lung cancer in Hungary between 2011 and 2021 revealed by robust estimates reconciling multiple data sources

Gálffy,

Szabó,

Tamási

et al. 2024

Pathol. Oncol. Res.

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ObjectiveHungary has repeatedly been shown to have the highest cancer-related mortality and incidence in Europe. Despite lung cancer being the most abundant malignant diagnosis in Hungary, numerous concerns have been raised recently regarding the bias inherent to reported incidence estimates. Re-analysis of reimbursement claims has been suggested previously by our group as an alternative approach, offering revised figures of lung cancer incidence between 2011 and 2016. Leveraging on this methodology, we aimed at updating Hungarian lung cancer incidence estimates with an additional 5 years (2017–2021), including years affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, we also attempted to improve the robustness of estimates by taking additional characteristics of the patient pathway into account.MethodsLung cancer patients between 2011 and 2021 were identified based on reimbursement-associated ICD-10 codes, histology codes and time patterns. Multiple query architectures were tested for sensitivity and compared to official estimates of the Hungarian National Cancer Registry (HNCR). Epidemiological trends were estimated by Poisson-regression, corrected for age and sex.ResultsA total of 89,948 lung cancer patients diagnosed in Hungary between 2011 and 2021 have been identified by our study. In 2019 alone, 7,887 patients were diagnosed according to our optimized query. ESP2013 standardized rate was estimated between 92.5/100,000 (2011) and 78.4/100,000 (2019). In 2019, standardized incidence was 106.8/100,000 for men and 59.7/100,000 for women. Up until the COVID-19 pandemic, lung cancer incidence was decreasing by 3.18% (2.1%–4.3%) yearly in men, while there was no significant decrease in women. Young age groups (40–49 and 50–59) featured the largest improvement, but women aged 60–79 are at an increasing risk for developing lung cancer. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a statistically significant decrease in lung cancer incidence, especially in the 50–59 age group (both sexes).ConclusionOur results show that using an optimized approach, re-analysis of reimbursement claims yields robust estimates of lung cancer incidence. According to this approach, the incidence rate of male lung cancer is declining in Hungary, in concordance with the trend observed for lung cancer mortality. Among women aged 60–79, the incidence of lung cancer has risen, requiring more attention in the near future.

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The Impact of COVID-19 on Lung Cancer Incidence in England

Cited by 9 publications

References 10 publications

Incidence, prevalence, and survival of lung cancer in the United Kingdom from 2000-2021: a population-based cohort study

Incidence, prevalence, and survival of lung cancer in the United Kingdom from 2000-2021: a population-based cohort study

Diagnosis and treatment of lung cancer in Denmark during the COVID-19 pandemic

Decreasing incidence and mortality of lung cancer in Hungary between 2011 and 2021 revealed by robust estimates reconciling multiple data sources

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