The Impact of COVID-19 on Fertility behaviour and Intentions in the Republic of Moldova

Emery, Tom; Koops, Judith C.

doi:10.31235/osf.io/fcqd9

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Against the previous discussion on the role of economic uncertainty during recessions and on the Italian context, a reduction in fertility can be expected. Studies on Italy and on other developed countries have already shown some evidence of that (Cohen 2021, Li et al 2021Lindeberg et al 2020, Guetto et al 2020, Micelli et al 2020, Blangiardo 2021, while studies on low and medium-income countries (Emery andKoops 2021, Zhu et al 2020) found mixed effects of the pandemic on fertility intentions. In Italy, first data released by ISTAT 8 shows that, compared to the same months of the previous year, in December 2020 the number of births declined by 10.3%; this is the first month in which the effects of the first epidemic wave are observable.…”

Section: The Impact Of the Covid-19 Pandemic On Births And Fertility Intentionsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Changes in fertility plans during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy: the role of occupation and income vulnerability

Arpino¹,

Luppi²,

Rosina³

2021

Preprint

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The health and economic crisis generated by the COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented in recent human history. We investigate the role of objective and subjective indicators of economic uncertainty due to the COVID-19 crisis in young Italians’ fertility plans during the year 2020. We use unique repeated cross-sectional data, collected at different time points during the pandemic (March and October/November 2020) together with pre-COVID data (2016). The data offer a standard fertility intention question pre- and during-COVID, and also a direct question on whether pre-COVID fertility plans have been confirmed, postponed or abandoned. We find that individuals with more vulnerable occupations show a lower probability of definitely intending to have a(nother) child in the short-term and a higher probability of having abandoned their pre-COVID fertility plan in March 2020, while in October 2020 changes in fertility plans did not vary by occupation. Instead, those who suffered from a negative income shock and those with negative expectations on their future income and occupation are more likely to abandon their pre-pandemic fertility plan compared to their better off counterparts, and these differences hold both in March and October. Overall, economic uncertainty generated by the pandemic seems to have similarly affected men and women’s fertility intentions. Our findings point to the fact that the unequal economic consequences of the pandemic also produced and will produce heterogeneous effects on fertility intentions.

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Section: The Impact Of the Covid-19 Pandemic On Births And Fertility Intentionsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Changes in fertility plans during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy: the role of occupation and income vulnerability

Arpino¹,

Luppi²,

Rosina³

2021

Preprint

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“…In 2021, the TFR (1.73) decreased by just 0.03 births per woman compared to 2020 (1.76). This may be because contraceptive usage fell by around 40% among couples with and without medium-term fertility intentions (Emery and Koops, 2021).…”

Section: Impact Of Fertility On Depopulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Depopulation in Moldova: The main challenge in the context of extremly high emigration

Gagauz¹,

Tabac²,

Pahomii³

2023

Populationyearbook

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In Moldova, there has been a long-term decline in the population, mainly due to high levels of emigration. The article presents an analysis of population dynamics in Moldova over the last three decades, and estimates the contributions of fertility, mortality and migration to this process. Using population censuses, data on the population with usual residence, vital statistics and data on Moldovan immigrants from the host countries’ statistical institutes,we estimate population changes between 1991–2021, and present demographic projections up to 2040. The results show that migration outflows account for more than 90% of the depopulation trend, with high levels of premature mortality accelerating the natural decline. The fall in births is associated with a decrease in the reproductive-age population. The total fertility rate has been decreasing gradually, while the cohort fertility rates have not fallen below 1.75 live births per woman. Past migration and low fertility are projected to result in long-term population decline. Demographic ageing is expected to increase. While population decline cannot be stopped, its scale can be limited through reductions in emigration and mortality. This study on population decline in Moldova helps to complete the demographic picture of Europe in the 20th century and into the 21st century.

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“…Studies on Italy and on other developed countries have shown mixed evidence of a possible fertility reduction (in intentions and behaviours) due to the pandemic [ 3 , 4 , 20 – 22 , 46 , 76 – 80 ], as in low and medium-income countries [ 81 – 83 ].…”

Section: The Impact Of the Covid-19 Pandemic On Births And Fertility ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Fertility plans in the early times of the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of occupational and financial uncertainty in Italy

2022

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This study investigates the association between objective and subjective indicators of economic uncertainty, generated by the COVID-19 health and economic crisis, and young Italians’ fertility plans during the 2020. We use unique repeated cross-sectional data, collected at different time points during the pandemic (March and October/November 2020) together with pre-COVID data (2016). The data offer a standard fertility intention question pre- and during-COVID, and also a direct question on whether pre-COVID fertility plans have been confirmed, postponed or abandoned. In March 2020, individuals with more vulnerable occupations show a lower probability of intending to have a(nother) child in the short-term and a higher probability of abandoning their pre-COVID fertility plan; in October 2020 changes in fertility plans do not vary by employment condition. Instead, both in March and October, those who suffered from a negative income shock and those with negative expectations on their future income and occupation are more likely to abandon their pre-pandemic fertility plan compared to their better off counterparts. Overall, economic uncertainty seems to have similarly affected men and women’s fertility intentions. Our findings point to the fact that the unequal economic consequences of the pandemic also produced and will produce heterogeneous effects on fertility intentions.

show abstract

The Impact of COVID-19 on Fertility behaviour and Intentions in the Republic of Moldova

Cited by 4 publications

References 6 publications

Changes in fertility plans during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy: the role of occupation and income vulnerability

Changes in fertility plans during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy: the role of occupation and income vulnerability

Depopulation in Moldova: The main challenge in the context of extremly high emigration

Fertility plans in the early times of the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of occupational and financial uncertainty in Italy

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