The Impact of Coastline and Bathymetry Changes on the Storm Tides in Zhejiang Coasts

Abstract

Coastal evolutions are expected to have a significant impact on storm tides, disproportionately aggravating coastal flooding. In this study, we utilize a nested storm tide model to provide an integrated investigation of storm tide responses to changes in coastline and bathymetry along the Zhejiang coasts. We selected coastline and bathymetry data from 1980 and 2016, as well as data from three typical typhoon events (i.e., Winnie, Haikui, and Chan-hom) for simulating the storm surge processes. The results indicate that changes in the coastline and bathymetry from 1980 to 2016 have resulted in an increase in storm tides in the northern part and a decrease in the central part of Zhejiang. Specifically, storm tides in Hangzhou Bay have increased significantly, with an average increase of about 0.3 m in the maximum storm tides primarily attributed to coastline changes. On the contrary, in smaller basins like Sanmen Bay, while reclamation itself has reduced peak storm surges, rapid siltation has consequently exacerbated the storm surge. By decomposing storm tides into astronomical tides and storm surges, we discovered that the change in tidal levels was twice as significant as the surge change. Moreover, the nonlinear tide–surge interaction was nearly four times that of the pure surge, significantly contributing to storm surge variation. Alterations in the momentum balance reveal that the water depth-induced bottom friction and wind stress increase contributes to the local enlargement of storm tides at the bay head, while the coastline changes exaggerate nearshore storm tides through an increase in the advection term.

Response Framework: Tidal analysis and prediction through physics-informed ML

“…In particular, these methods treat tides and surges as separable. Several studies have shown that treating surge and tide as separate can lead to erroneous predictions [54,55,56]. Additionally, the high computational cost of numerical models is impractical for ensemble forecasting and regions with poor data quality or access to computational resources.…”

The Role of Advection in Storm Surge for Hurricane Michael (2018)

“…Advection can be substantial in areas that experience rapid lateral changes in velocity, such as might be expected in regions of rapid change in topography and geometry, particularly with curvature along the coastline (Kolar, Gray, et al, 1994;Li, 2006;Li et al, 2008). A few studies have found that advection can be important in tide and storm surge hydrodynamics (Gou et al, 2023;Hope et al, 2013;Kerr et al, 2013;Li, 2006;Li et al, 2008;Parker, 1991;Rego & Li, 2010;Sheng & Wang, 2004;Tsai et al, 2022). For a hindcast of Hurricane Ike, Kerr et al (2013) concluded that advection improved simulated model performance by capturing an additional 10-20 cm of water level setup.…”