The Impact of Climatological Factors on the Incidence of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) in Colombian Municipalities from 2017 to 2019

Abstract

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a zoonotic disease caused by protozoa of the Leishmania genus, transmitted by vectors from the Phlebotominae subfamily. The interaction between the vector, reservoir, and parasite is susceptible to climate change. This study explores how temperature and rainfall influenced the incidence of CL in 15 Colombian municipalities between 2017 and 2019. Epidemiological data were obtained from Colombia’s Instituto Nacional de Salud, while climatological data came from the Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales. Using Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, we examined the relationships between monthly climatic variables and the cumulative incidence of CL, considering various lag times. The data were further analyzed using Locally Weighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOWESS). Our findings reveal both significant positive and negative correlations, depending on locality and climate variables. LOWESS analysis indicates that while rainfall-related incidence remains stable, temperature impacts incidence in a parabolic trend. This study underscores the significant yet complex influence of climatic factors on CL incidence. The insights gained could aid public health efforts by improving predictive models and crafting targeted interventions to mitigate the disease’s impact, particularly in regions vulnerable to climate variability.