The impact of climatic conditions of spring flood formation on hydrograph shape of the Desna River

Khrystyuk, Borys; Gorbachova, Liudmyla; Koshkina, O.V.

doi:10.26491/mhwm/67914

Cited by 6 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…In the study (Shakirzanova, 2015) it is shown that in the Southern Buh River Basin the climatic factors of spring floods have longterm cyclical fluctuations. The cyclical fluctuations of climatic factors of the formation of spring floods of rivers are also shown in the papers (Khrystyuk, 2013;Khrystyuk et al, 2017). The classification of hydrographs by similar shapes in them was carried out and it was shown that the presence of similar in shape hydrographs in the time series of classes indicates that from time to time the similar formation conditions of water flow at the catchment area repeats due to cyclicity of climatic and, as a consequence, of hydrological processes.…”

Section: Results and Their Analysismentioning

confidence: 71%

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Spring flood frequency analysis in the Southern Buh River Basin, Ukraine

Gorbachova¹,

Prykhodkina²,

Khrystiuk³

2021

Journ. Geol., Geogr., and Geoec..

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The river floods are among the most dangerous natural disasters in the world. Each year, the spring floods cause the significant material damage in the different countries, including Ukraine. Knowledge of trends in such floods, as well as their probabilistic forecast, is of great scientific and practical importance. In last decades, the decreasing phase of cyclical fluctuations of the maximum runoff of spring floods has been observed on the plain rivers of Ukraine, including the Southern Bug River. In addition, there is an increase in air temperature. So, the actual task is the determine the modern probable maximum discharges estimates of spring floods in the Southern Buh River Basin as well as their comparison with the estimates that were computed earlier. It gives an opportunity to reveal possible changes of the statistical characteristics and values of the probable maximum discharges, to analyze and to discuss the reasons for these changes. For the investigation, we used the time series of the maximum discharges of spring floods for 21 gauging stations in the Southern Buh River Basin since the beginning of the observations and till 2015. The method of the regression on the variable that is based on the data of analogues rivers was used to bringing up the duration of the time series and restoration of the gaps. In the study, the hydro-genetic methods for estimation of the homogeneity and stationarity of hydrological series, namely the mass curve, the residual mass curve and the combined graphs. The distributions of Kritskyi & Menkel and Pearson type III for the frequency analysis were used. It has been shown in this study that the maximum discharges of spring floods of time series are quasi-homogeneous and quasi-stationary. It is explained the presence in the observation series of only increasing and decreasing phases of cyclical fluctuations, their considerable duration, as well as the significant variability of the maximal flow. The series of maximal runoff of spring floods are very asymmetric, which significantly complicates the selection of analytical distribution curves. The updated current parameters of the maximal spring flood runoff have not changed significantly. It can be assumed that such characteristics have already become stable over time, as the series of maximal runoff of spring floods already have phases of increasing and decreasing of long-term cyclic fluctuations.

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Section: Results and Their Analysismentioning

confidence: 71%

“…In Ukraine, on the plain rivers the dangerous floods are observed during the spring period (Grebin, 2010;Gorbachova, 2015;Shakirzanova, 2015;Khrystyuk et al, 2017). In this paper, the spring flood estimates was carried out for the Southern Buh River Basin.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spring flood frequency analysis in the Southern Buh River Basin, Ukraine

Gorbachova¹,

Prykhodkina²,

Khrystiuk³

2021

Journ. Geol., Geogr., and Geoec..

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“…However, the hydrograph shape has an important practical value, for example for the operation of the reservoirs, industrial and municipal water management, the smooth functioning of water transport, flood proofing, hydrological forecasting, etc. (Ternynck et al 2015 andKhrystyuk et al 2017). A proposed classification might open new avenues in this field.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Grouping of hydrographs with a similar shape in the classes improves understanding of various hydrological regimes of the river, especially during periods of flood and drought (Ternynck et al 2015). Such research is very rare in Ukraine (Khrystyuk et al 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Faceted classification of the spring flood hydrographs of the Southern Buh river

Khrystiuk¹,

Gorbachova²,

Prykhodkina³

2020

geogrcas

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Faceted classification of the spring flood hydrographs of the Southern Buh river A hydrograph shape reflects the effect of hydrological, hydrobiological, hydromorphological, hydrochemical and other processes acting in river basins. Classification of river hydrographs could help to evaluate the long-term changes in river basins or compare hydrological response of different basins. We present the methodology of the spring flood hydrograph classification and show its application in the Southern Buh River basin, Ukraine. The methodology uses faceted classification employing a multidimensional statistical approach and a controlled number of classes. We analyze daily discharge data for 102 spring flood hydrographs of the Southern Buh River from the period 1914 -2015. Classification of hydrographs taking into account the date of the beginning, peak and end of the spring flood flows and the peak discharge provides 81 classes, while only ten of them contained three and more hydrographs. The most frequent hydrograph shapes are EEEL d (early beginning, peak and end of spring flood, low peak discharge) and LLLH d (late beginning, peak and end of spring flood, high peak discharge) that contain 8 and 10 hydrographs, respectively. While the majority of hydrographs falling in the class LLLH d occurred until the end of the 1960's, the hydrographs from the LLLH d were mostly observed in the last three decades.

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“…They use statistical methods, correlation and regression analysis, etc. (Apel et al, 2004;Shevnina, 2009;Khrystyuk, 2012;Scitovski et al, 2012;Khrystyuk et al, 2017). Hydrological forecasts with the warning lead time on one year, two years, or a decade have low accuracy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Forecasting of Extraordinary Spring Floods by Сommensurability Method on the Dnipro River Near the Kyiv City, Ukraine

Khrystiuk

Gorbachova

2019

EREM

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The Kyiv city is the capital of Ukraine, as well as its major administrative and industrial center. Kyiv is located in the middle reaches of the Dnipro River which is the largest river in Ukraine. In the past, the Kyiv city suffered from dangerous spring floods. Consequently, long-term forecasting of spring floods on the Dnipro River near Kyiv has an important scientific and practical significance. Existing quantitative methods for such forecasting are of limited forecast lead time and require many input hydrometeorological data. In the paper the information method Weng Wen-Bo applied, which is a qualitative forecasting method. The use such method allows to determine the periods and specific years in which the following extraordinary spring floods on the Dnipro River near Kyiv can occur.

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The impact of climatic conditions of spring flood formation on hydrograph shape of the Desna River

Cited by 6 publications

References 5 publications

Spring flood frequency analysis in the Southern Buh River Basin, Ukraine

Spring flood frequency analysis in the Southern Buh River Basin, Ukraine

Faceted classification of the spring flood hydrographs of the Southern Buh river

Long-Term Forecasting of Extraordinary Spring Floods by Сommensurability Method on the Dnipro River Near the Kyiv City, Ukraine

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