The impact of climatic changes on total horticultural production and food security in agro-ecological zones of Iran

Abstract

Arid and semi-arid climates, including that of Iran, are more susceptible to environmental changes due to their special ecological structure than other climates. Therefore, climate change in these areas appears to have significant effects on agricultural and food production systems. The present study explores the effect of climatic changes on total horticultural production and food security in agro-ecological zones of Iran. The study was conducted in two steps. In the first step, the effects of climatic parameters on total horticultural production were investigated using time series data (1985–2017) and a regression model. In the second step, due to the important role of horticultural products in per capita food consumption in Iran, the effect of climate parameters on food security was also examined. Results revealed that total horticultural production was influenced by temperature, evapotranspiration, and wind speed at the 0.05 level. With the increase in temperature (at a rate of one unit), total horticultural production is reduced to 0.01 million tons. Evapotranspiration and wind speed have had a negative effect on total horticultural production, and with increasing evapotranspiration and wind speed, total horticultural production was 0.029 and 0.008 million, respectively, tons decreased. Also, food security was influenced by temperature, precipitation, and wind speed.

Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Food Security and Agriculture in Iran: A Survey

“…Environmental constraints besides the disturbance of the food system can continuously threaten food security in Iran. Climate change, water crisis, soil erosion, and salinity are critical agents that reduce crop productivity [96][97][98]. Tehrani et al [97] evaluated more than 20,000 soil samples and found that more than 50% of Iran's soils are deficient in nutrients.…”

Comparing food consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic: analysis of household income and expenditure survey data in Iran

“…Hence, the COVID-19 pandemic, besides directly affecting food consumption, can worsen this situation by disrupting the production cycle and ignoring environmental protection policies. [ 43 , 44 ]. Therefore, COVID-19 can be one of the main influencing factors in the household food basket.…”

“…Besides the economic recession, environmental restrictions (such as climate change, severe soil erosion, deforestation, etc.) that are expanding in Iran can cause problems by disrupting the agricultural sector in the economy and food security [43][44][45][46]. Hence, the COVID-19 pandemic, besides directly affecting food consumption, can worsen this situation by disrupting the production cycle and ignoring environmental protection policies.…”