The impact of climate changes on water level of Qinghai Lake in China over the past 50 years

Abstract

Understanding the variation regularity of lake level and the potential driver factors can provide insights into lake conservation and management. In this study, inter-and inner-annual variations of lake level in Qinghai Lake during the period 1961-2012 were analyzed to determine whether climatic factor or runoff factor were responsible for the variations. The results showed that lake level decreased significantly during the period 1961-2004 at a rate of À7.6 cm/yr, while increasing significantly during the period 2004-2012 at a rate of 14 cm/yr, and all were significant at a p value of <0.01. Lake level was most sensitive to climate and river runoff. Precipitation and river runoff had directly positive effects on lake level, but inverse evaporation and wind speed played a significantly negative role on lake level. The relative contributions of influencing factors in the Southeast Asian monsoon (SEAM) and the westerly circulation periods on annual lake level variations were approximately 49.8% and 27.8%, respectively. The relative contributions of temperature, precipitation, evaporation, and wind speed on lake level variation were approximately 13.8%, 36.3%, 27.1%, and 18.4%, respectively. In general, the annual lake level was primarily influenced by precipitation and evaporation of the SEAM period.

Measurements and Modeling of the Water Budget in Semiarid High‐Altitude Qinghai Lake Basin, Northeast Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau

“…The annual air temperature between 1961 and 2012 showed an obvious increasing trend at a rate of 0.3 °C/decade, which was more rapid than both its surrounding regions and the global mean rate (B. Wang et al, ). The lake level decreased significantly during the period of 1961–2004 at a rate of −7.6 cm/year, whereas it increased significantly during the period of 2004–2012 at a rate of 14 cm/year (Cui & Li, ). The variation in lake level was highly positively correlated to the surface runoff and precipitation, whereas it was negatively correlated to the evaporation (Cui & Li, ; X. Y. Li et al, , ).…”

“…The lake level decreased significantly during the period of 1961–2004 at a rate of −7.6 cm/year, whereas it increased significantly during the period of 2004–2012 at a rate of 14 cm/year (Cui & Li, ). The variation in lake level was highly positively correlated to the surface runoff and precipitation, whereas it was negatively correlated to the evaporation (Cui & Li, ; X. Y. Li et al, , ). Due to the complex geological environments, high altitude, and harsh working conditions, few field observations have been conducted concerning hydrological budget at the different ecosystems and for the entire watershed in the QLB (S. Y. Zhang et al, ).…”

A process‐based insight into nonstationarity of the probability distribution of annual runoff

“…In most current literature, identifying whether nonstationarity exists in runoff series is mainly treated as a pure statistical problem, which is then addressed using the trend/change‐point tests, such as the Mann‐Kendall (MK) test and Spearman test for trends, and Pettitt test for change points [ Mann , ; Kendall , ; Pettitt , ; Yue et al ., ; Burn and Hag Elnur , ; Xiong and Guo , ; Vogel et al ., ; Cui and Li , ; Wei et al ., ]. The nonstationarity of runoff series can be modeled by the time‐varying moments model, in which the statistical parameters (which can be expressed through moments) of the runoff probability distributions are linked to time, climatic indices, or human activity indices [ Villarini et al ., ; López and Francés , ; Du et al ., ; Jiang et al ., ].…”

“…Although observed changes in hydrological variables such as flooding are not widespread across the globe [Stocker et al, 2013], the so-called nonstationarity has been detected in many runoff series including annual runoff, low flow and flood [Xiong and Guo, 2004;Villarini et al, 2009;Vogel et al, 2011;Hall et al, 2014;Bender et al, 2014;Jiang et al, 2015a;Kim et al, 2016]. The basic stationarity assumption in traditional hydrological frequency analysis is being questioned, and therefore nonstationarity is increasingly recognized as a considerable challenge in water resources and flood management, In most current literature, identifying whether nonstationarity exists in runoff series is mainly treated as a pure statistical problem, which is then addressed using the trend/change-point tests, such as the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Spearman test for trends, and Pettitt test for change points [Mann, 1945;Kendall, 1975;Pettitt, 1979;Yue et al, 2002;Burn and Hag Elnur, 2002;Xiong and Guo, 2004;Vogel et al, 2013;Cui and Li, 2016;Wei et al, 2016]. The nonstationarity of runoff series can be modeled by the time-varying moments model, in which the statistical parameters (which can be expressed through moments) of the runoff probability distributions are linked to time, climatic indices, or human activity indices [Villarini et al, 2009;L opez and Franc es, 2013;Du et al, 2015;Jiang et al, 2015a].…”

Changes in Pan Evaporation and Their Attribution to Climate Factors in the Zoige Alpine Wetland, the Eastern Edge of the Tibetan Plateau (1969–2014)

“…Wetlands in many parts of the world have undergone severe deterioration and drastic shrinkage under the influence of climate change in the past few decades [1][2][3][4][5]. For instance, in China the water level of Qinghai lake in Northwest China showed an overall decreasing trend (−0.07 m/year) with an increasing temperature (+0.03 • C/year) from 1956 to 2009 [6].…”