The Impact of Climate Change on Stochastic Variations of the Hydrology of the Flow of the Indus River

Abstract

Pakistan’s agricultural economy is reliant on the Indus River’s irrigation system, which is fed by the water coming from the great Himalayas-Karakoram Glacier Mountains. Because of hilly terrain areas, the climatic variations have an intense effect on the river flow, especially during the winter and monsoon months. Consequently, significant variations, which are observed annually, result in flooding situations in the monsoon months and reduced flows in the winter season. Thousands of people have lost their lives and massive property destruction has taken place due to disastrous floods that occurred during 2010 and 2016. Past studies have focused on proper water resources and the management of extreme events such as floods and droughts; however, modelling and forecasting based on the various climatic factors and stochastic variations are rare. This paper attempts to forecast Indus River flows using multiple linear regression (MLR), the stochastic time series, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), and its reduced heteroscedasticity model, i.e., SARIMA-GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) methods at the Kalabagh station. The results show that MLR is best over the short-term; SARIMA is better over the long-term, and SARIMA-GARCH may be superior for a very long-term forecast.

How did the aridity of the climate in Slovakia change over last decades?

“…The climatic conditions of Slovakia are affected by the Atlantic Ocean on the west and a continental climate on the east, with different climate conditions between the lowlands on the south and mountains in the north. Over the last few decades, changes in the availability of water have been observed, with a notable increase in the frequency of dry periods (Keszeliová et al, 2022;Younus and Hassan, 2022). Measured daily data for climatological stations were acessed from database of Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute.…”

Development of a Conceptual Snow Sub-Model: Application in Meteorological Stations, Slovakia

“…It is possible in its user environment to define new variables and their properties using combinations of a wide range of functions that fulfil an essential aspect in the development of the ARB model. Usual descriptions or analyses of a water balance do not often consider the impact of snow (Keszeliová et al, 2021;Olofintoye et al, 2022;Yonus and Hassan, 2022), either for a temperate/warm climate or the large scale of a modeled basin. To evaluate the winter season as accurately as the summer, it was necessary for the ARB model to develop and include a snow sub-model that would simulate the processes of the snow accumulation, melting and runoff processes.…”

A methodology for the estimation of control flood wave hydrographs for the Horné Orešany reservoir

“…However, it is sometimes critical to use whole flood hydrographs, as they provide other essential flood characteristics such as volume, duration, gradient, course, etc. These characteristics can be affect by the recent hydrological time series changes (Ďurigová et al, 2020;Mohammadzadeh et al, 2019;Yonus and Hassan, 2022). In practice, these hydrographs are often referred to as design flood hydrographs (DFH), which are often associated with an estimated return period.…”