The Impact of Climate Change on China and Brazil’s Soybean Trade

Abstract

In the recent past, China has expanded its grain production to achieve high food security and increased its partial dependence on imported agricultural commodities, of which soybean supply is highly import-dependent. This study systematically reviews the past trends in China’s soybean demand, Brazil’s soybean production and export, factors contributing to the soybean trade between China and Brazil, and future uncertainty in China’s demand and Brazil’s supply under climate change. We find that recently China imported ~64% of soybean from Brazil, while ~73% of Brazil’s soybean exports were destined for China, making them key stakeholders in their international soybean trade. China’s accession to the World Trade Organization, China–Brazil trade cooperation, and diversion from trade with the USA have played a pivotal role in China’s increasing soybean imports from Brazil. China’s soybean import has brought increasing virtual land to China (from 3.57 million hectares (Mha) in 2005 to 19.63 mha in 2020). This growing virtual land import could be one of the reasons behind Brazil’s soybean harvested area, which increased from 22.95 Mha in 2005 to 37.19 Mha in 2020. In the future, climate change impacts on soybean production in Brazil can seriously affect China’s soybean imports from Brazil and its domestic food security. We analyze these effects using a climate-crop–economic modeling approach, where yield changes from the crop model are incorporated into the economic model as lower land productivity. Our results show that Brazil’s future soybean production and gross exports can drop up to 13.1% and 15.2% under the highest emissions scenario (RCP8.5). Consequently, China would face a decrease in its soybean imports from Brazil (−9.94 Mt). Due to these import reductions, China’s domestic soybean supply will be reduced (−9.94 Mt). There would also be some reduction in China’s meat supply and a drop in China’s consumer welfare. Our results can contribute to devising policies to ensure China’s food security and promote global sustainable development goals.

The Impact of Agricultural Products (Soybean and Dairy Products) Trade Liberalization on China's Agricultural Development

“…China's imports of agricultural products reached RMB 1.35 trillion in 2019, of which the import volume of soybean was 885,100 tons and the import value was USD 2.291 billion, and the import volume of dairy products was 41,800 tons and the import value was USD 1.288 billion [4].…”

Impacts of aerosol meteorological feedback on China's yield potential of soybean

“…China is the leading agricultural country in East Asia with severe air pollution and its impact on the weather and climate is becoming increasingly obvious (Chen, Huang, et al, 2017; Guo et al, 2016; Huang, Huang, et al, 2020; Li et al, 2017; Wang et al, 2022). As the largest importer and consumer of soybean worldwide, China is heavily dependent on international soybean imports and is seriously imbalanced between supply and demand domestically (Ali et al, 2022; Chen et al, 2022). Based on constraints in the self‐sufficiency of soybean and the threat of air pollution on crop yields, it is pressing to elucidate the impacts of air pollution especially particle pollution on soybean production in order to promote the production of soybean crops and strengthen the foundation of national food security.…”

Nitrogen Addition Mitigates Drought by Promoting Soybean (Glycine Max (Linn.) Merr) Flowering and Podding and Affecting Related Enzyme Activities

“…China has achieved self-sufficiency in major crops. However, soybean production is heavily reliant on imports [4], which account for over 60% of all crop imports. Therefore, it is urgent to increase domestic soybean production to ensure food security.…”