The impact of climate change on circulation patterns in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea upper layer using Med-ROMS model

Nagy, Hazem; Lorenzo, Emanuele Di; El-Gindy, A.A.

doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2019.04.012

Cited by 22 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…This mechanism is called the Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System (BiOS, Gačić et al, 2010). Another hypothesis states that the local wind curl changes are responsible for the observed decadal circulation changes (Pinardi et al, 2015;Nagy et al, 2019). In any case, periodical reversals of the North Ionian Gyre (NIG) bring either ultraoligotrophic highly saline waters from the Eastern Mediterranean or less oligotrophic waters of lower salinity from the Western Mediterranean to the Adriatic, flushing the Adriatic within a few years at maximum (Mosetti, 1983;Vilibić and Orlić, 2002;Franić, 2005;Vilibić et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observation, Preconditioning and Recurrence of Exceptionally High Salinities in the Adriatic Sea

et al. 2021

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The paper aims to describe the preconditioning and observations of exceptionally high salinity values that were observed in summer and autumn of 2017 in the Adriatic. The observations encompassed CTD measurements carried out along the well-surveyed climatological transect in the Middle Adriatic (the Palagruža Sill, 1961–2020), Argo profiling floats and several glider missions, accompanied with satellite altimetry and operational ocean numerical model (Mediterranean Forecasting System) products. Typically, subsurface salinity maximum, with values lower than 39.0, is observed in the Southern Adriatic (usually between 200 and 400 m), related to ingressions of saltier and warmer waters originating in the eastern Mediterranean (Levantine Intermediate Water—LIW). However, seasonally strong inflow of warm and high salinity waters (S > 38.8) has been observed much closer to the surface since spring 2015. The main LIW core deepened at the same time (to 400–700 m). Such double-maxima vertical pattern was eventually disturbed by winter convection at the beginning of 2017, increasing salinities throughout the water column. A new episode of very strong inflow of high salinity waters from the Northern Ionian was observed in late winter and spring of 2017, this time restricted almost to the surface. As most of 2017 was characterized by extremely dry conditions, low riverine inputs and warmer than usual summer over the Adriatic and Northern Ionian, salinity values above the sharp and shallow (15–40 m) thermocline significantly increased. The maximum recorded salinity was 39.26, as measured by the Argo float in the Southern Adriatic. Surface salinity maximum events, but with much lower intensity, have been documented in the past. Both past events and the 2017 event were characterized by (i) concurrence with overall high salinity conditions and cyclonic or transitional phase of the Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System, (ii) very low river discharges preconditioning the events for a year or more, (iii) higher-than-average heat fluxes during most of the summer and early autumn periods, forming a stable warm layer above the thermocline, and (iv) higher-than-average E-P (evaporation minus precipitation) acting on this warm surface layer. Importantly, the 2017 event was also preceded by strong near-surface inflow of very saline waters from the Northern Ionian in early 2017.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observation, Preconditioning and Recurrence of Exceptionally High Salinities in the Adriatic Sea

et al. 2021

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“…Three alternative explanations of the NIG reversals have been proposed. The first one attributes the NIG reversals mainly to local wind forcing 15,16 ; accordingly, the irregular alternation of BiOS phases is simply explained by the stochastic nature of the local mesoscale atmospheric variability. The second explanation includes the BiOS complex feedback mechanism encompassing near-surface, intermediate and dense, convectively generated, waters (i.e., respectively, Atlantic Water, AW, Levantine Intermediate Water, LIW, and Adriatic Dense Water, AdDW).…”

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confidence: 99%

Experimental evidence of long-term oceanic circulation reversals without wind influence in the North Ionian Sea

Rubino

Gačić

Bensi

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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Under the emerging features of interannual-to-decadal ocean variability, the periodical reversals of the north ionian Gyre (niG), driven mostly by the mechanism named Adriatic-ionian Bimodal oscillating System (BioS), are known as impacting on marine physics and biogeochemistry and potentially influencing short-term regional climate predictability in the Eastern Mediterranean. Whilst it has been suggested that local wind forcing cannot explain such variability, aspects of the alternative hypothesis indicating that niG reversals mainly arises from an internal ocean feedback mechanism alone remain largely debated. Here we demonstrate, using the results of physical experiments, performed in the world's largest rotating tank and numerical simulations, that the main observed feature of BioS, i.e., the switch of polarity of the near-surface circulation in the niG, can be induced by a mere injection of dense water on a sloping bottom. Hence, BioS is a truly oceanic mode of variability and abrupt polarity changes in circulation can arise solely from extreme dense water formation events.

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“…There is strong evidence that climate change heavily affects coastal structures through sea level rise (Nicholls, 2011) and intensified coastal erosion (Toimil et al, 2017). Storm surges, which run up higher with rising sea level (Needham et al, 2015;Hague et al, 2020;Stephens et al, 2020) as well as changing current patterns (Nagy et al, 2019) and sediment relocations (Soomere and 575 Viška, 2014) endanger levees, groynes and other coastal structures, and call for coastal management decisions to cope with these changes (Le Cozannet et al, 2017). Harbours and cities are strongly affected, so that there is considerable economic (Di Segni et al, 2017) and ecological (Naylor et al, 2012) value at stake.…”

Section: The Impact Matrix Of Interrelationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Human impacts and their interactions in the Baltic Sea region

Reckermann

Omstedt

Soomere

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Coastal environments, in particular heavily populated semi-enclosed marginal seas and coasts like the Baltic Sea region, are stongly affected by human activities. A multitude of human impacts, including climate change, affects the different compartments of the environment, and these effects interact with each other. As part of the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR), we present an inventory and discussion of different human-induced factors and processes affecting the environment of the Baltic Sea region, and their interrelations. Some are naturally occurring and modified by human activities (i.e. climate change, coastal processes, hypoxia, acidification, submarine groundwater discharges, marine ecosystems, non-indigenous species, land use and land cover), some are completely human-induced (i.e. agriculture, aquaculture, fisheries, river regulations, offshore wind farms, shipping, chemical contamination, dumped warfare agents, marine litter and microplastics, tourism, coastal management), and they are all interrelated to different degrees. We present a general description and analysis of the state of knowledge on these interrelations. Our main insight is that climate change has an overarching, integrating impact on all of the other factors and can be interpreted as a background effect, which has different implications for the other factors. Impacts on the environment and the human sphere can be roughly allocated to anthropogenic drivers such as food production, energy production, transport, industry and economy. We conclude that a sound management and regulation of human activities must be implemented in order to use and keep the environments and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea region sustainably in a good shape. This must balance the human needs, which exert tremendous pressures on the systems, as humans are the overwhelming driving force for almost all changes we see. The findings from this inventory of available information and analysis of the different factors and their interactions in the Baltic Sea region can largely be transferred to other comparable marginal and coastal seas in the world.

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The impact of climate change on circulation patterns in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea upper layer using Med-ROMS model

Cited by 22 publications

References 51 publications

Observation, Preconditioning and Recurrence of Exceptionally High Salinities in the Adriatic Sea

Observation, Preconditioning and Recurrence of Exceptionally High Salinities in the Adriatic Sea

Experimental evidence of long-term oceanic circulation reversals without wind influence in the North Ionian Sea

Human impacts and their interactions in the Baltic Sea region

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