The Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in Uganda—An Integrated Systems Assessment with Water and Energy Implications

Abstract

With less than 3% of agricultural cropland under irrigation, subsistence farmers in Uganda are dependent on seasonal precipitation for crop production. The majority of crops grown in the country-especially staple food crops like Matooke (Plantains)-are sensitive to the availability of water throughout their growing period and hence vulnerable to climatic impacts. In response to these challenges, the Government has developed an ambitious irrigation master plan. However, the energy implications of implementing the plan have not been explored in detail. This article attempts to address three main issues involving the nexus between water, energy, crop production, and climate. The first one explores the impact of climate on rain-fed crop production. The second explores the irrigation crop water needs under selected climate scenarios. The third focuses on the energy implications of implementing the irrigation master plan. We attempt to answer the above questions using a water balance model for Uganda developed for this study. Our results, developed at a catchment level, indicate that on average there could be an 11% reduction and 8% increase in rain-fed crop production in the cumulatively driest and wettest climates, respectively. Furthermore, in the identified driest climate, the electricity required for pumping water is expected to increase by 12% on average compared to the base scenario.

Climate Change Adaptation Options in Farming Communities of Selected Nigerian Ecological Zones

“…Finally, rainfall was associated with maize, rice, or cassava yields in any state. Many other studies have reported the similar finding of the climate-crops relationships in China (Zhang et al 2016;Gao et al 2019;Ding et al 2020), Southern Africa (Mafongoya et al 2017;Nhamo et al 2019) and East African countries (Sridharan et al 2019;Thomas et al 2019). These results dovetail with results from previous research.…”

Climate Change Adaptation Options in Farming Communities of Selected Nigerian Ecological Zones

“…Finally, rainfall was associated with maize, rice, or cassava yields in any state. Many other studies have reported the similar finding of the climate-crops relationships in China (Zhang et al 2016;Gao et al 2019;Ding et al 2020), Southern Africa (Mafongoya et al 2017;Nhamo et al 2019) and East African countries (Sridharan et al 2019;Thomas et al 2019). These results dovetail with results from previous research.…”

Observed and Future Precipitation and Evapotranspiration in Water Management Zones of Uganda: CMIP6 Projections

“…For Uganda, several climate change studies (e.g., [16][17][18]) projected precipitation increase. However, the investigation of the concomitant future changes in both precipitation and evapotranspiration across Uganda is limited.…”

“…Previous climate change studies in Uganda were either limited to a catchment scale or did not consider differences in the hydro-climates of the various sub-regions [16][17][18][26][27][28]. This shows that there is limited information for adaptive planning of water resources management across the various WMZs in Uganda.…”