The Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in West Africa: An Assessment for the Oueme River Basin in Benin

Abstract

Climate change studies for West Africa tend to predict a reduced potential for farming that will affect the food security situation of an already impoverished population. However, these studies largely ignore farmers' adaptations and market adjustments that mitigate predicted negative effects. The paper attempts to fill some of this gap through a spatially explicit evaluation of the impact of climate change on farm income in the Oueme River Basin (ORB), Benin. The ORB is in many respects representative for the middle belt of West Africa where the predominantly sparse occupation leaves potential for migration from more densely populated areas. We apply a number of structural, spatially explicit relationships estimated for the whole territory of Benin to simulate conditions in the ORB proper that are similar to those currently prevailing in the drier North, and the more humid South. Our scenario results factor out for the main crops cultivated the constituent effects on yields, area, and revenue per ton. We find that under average climate change conditions the current low yields are not reduced, provided that cropping patterns are adjusted, while price increases partly compensate for the remaining adverse effects on farmer income. Consequently, without any policy intervention, farm incomes remain relatively stable, albeit at low levels and with increased occurrence of crop failures after extreme droughts. Scenario simulations show that there are also beneficial aspects that can, with adequate interventions, even turn losses into gains. Main channel for improvement would be the reduction Water Resour Manage (2012) of fallow, which is particularly promising because it requires few adjustments in prevailing farming practices, exploits the potential of uncultivated land and improves the water use efficiency. It also enables the Basin's capacity to absorb future migrant flows from more severely affected neighboring Sahelian areas.

Increasing the Effectiveness of the “Great Green Wall” as an Adaptation to the Effects of Climate Change and Desertification in the Sahel

“…In this paper, we focus specifically on the process of soil degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas, resulting from several factors, including climatic variation and human action, and which involves the loss of the biological or economic productivity of cropland, pasture, wetlands, forests or woodlands [30]. For decades, desertification has been identified as one of the most pressing challenges facing the Sahel, with a variety of factors making the region particularly sensitive [31][32][33]. Biophysically, the Sahel is a semi-arid transition zone between the Sahara desert and tropical Africa.…”

Climate change adaptation among poultry farmers: evidence from Nigeria

“…rest of sub-Saharan Africa) is expected to be among the hardest hit by climate change (Parry et al 2004;Mendelsohn and Massetti 2017). Global climate and crop production models forecast lower yields for staple crops in West Africa as a result of climate change (Jones and Thornton 2009;Sonneveld et al 2012). Climate impacts will be even more pronounced in arid and semi-arid areas where increased drought frequencies are expected to reduce vegetation cover and livestock numbers, and higher temperatures to cause an increase in the demand of already scarce water sources for livestock (Thornton et al 2009;Debela et al 2015;Ayanlade et al 2017;Ou and Mendelsohn 2017).…”

Mid-Century Climate Change Impacts on Ouémé River Discharge at Bonou Outlet (Benin)

“…The remaining third is frozen in glaciers or hidden too deep in underground layers. Furthermore, due to population growth, the increasing demand for water-intensive usage such as agriculture, fisheries and industries, has stressed global freshwater resources especially in West Africa [2]. In addition, climate change is projected to impact temperature and rainfall with consequences on runoff especially in developing countries [3,4].…”