The impact of changing climate and abundance on reproduction in an ice-dependent species, the Northwest Atlantic harp seal,<i>Pagophilus groenlandicus</i>

Stenson, Garry B.; Buren, Alejandro D.; Koen‐Alonso, Mariano

doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsv202

Cited by 19 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…Environmental conditions seem to impact fecundity more than survival ( This is consistent with life history theory that suggests that long-lived capital breeders 'prioritize' survival over breeding (Gaillard, Festa-Bianchet, & Yoccoz, 1998;Reed, Harris, & Wanless, 2015;Stenson, Buren, & Koen-Alonso, 2016). While trends in survival were stable, varying only owing to strong short-term action such as culling, temporal trends in fecundity were more variable.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 71%

“…While trends in survival were stable, varying only owing to strong short-term action such as culling, temporal trends in fecundity were more variable. Environmental conditions seem to impact fecundity more than survival ( This is consistent with life history theory that suggests that long-lived capital breeders 'prioritize' survival over breeding (Gaillard, Festa-Bianchet, & Yoccoz, 1998;Reed, Harris, & Wanless, 2015;Stenson, Buren, & Koen-Alonso, 2016). The availability and quality of food is known to impact body condition and may therefore impact fecundity added to the baseline model.…”

Section: Prediction For 2014supporting

confidence: 66%

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Use of state‐space modelling to identify ecological covariates associated with trends in pinniped demography

Caillat

Cordes

Thompson

et al. 2019

Aquatic Conservation

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1. Identifying and understanding ecological drivers that influence wildlife populations is challenging but critical for conservation. This typically requires integrating longterm data on both the population and potential drivers within statistical models that are suitable for analysing these complex relationships. State-space models offer one method for integrating such data. Once implemented within a Bayesian framework, these analyses can control for multifactorial influences on populations, allowing one to extract otherwise undetectable correlations between the environment and the underlying, inferred demography.2. In the Moray Firth, Scotland, harbour seals have been counted annually for 30 years . A Bayesian state-space model was used to explore whether patterns in vital rates were correlated to changes in prey abundance, inter-specific competition (grey seal abundance), environmental variables [the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and sea-surface temperature], or level of biotoxins (saxitoxin and domoic acid) in the Moray Firth waters.3. The credible interval of the posterior distributions of three of these covariate coefficients (sandeel proxy, NAO and grey seal abundance) suggested that there was a relationship between those covariates and vital rates. Both the sandeel proxy and NAO showed a positive correlation with fecundity, whereas grey seal abundance had a negative impact on pup survival.4. This work demonstrates how an integrated state-space modelling approach can bring together diverse data sets and point to important interactions with prey, and with other predators in the system. This suggests that the wider-scale management of UK harbour seal populations with their contrasting temporal trends needs to account for variation in the marine ecosystem at appropriate spatial scales, in line with current policy concerning spatial planning in the marine environment.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 71%

Section: Prediction For 2014supporting

confidence: 66%

Use of state‐space modelling to identify ecological covariates associated with trends in pinniped demography

Caillat

Cordes

Thompson

et al. 2019

Aquatic Conservation

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“…predation) forces are considered major drivers of capelin survival, the collapse of the Newfoundland capelin stock in the early 1990s is hypothesized to have been due to bottom-up processes that affected the recruitment and survival of capelin (Buren et al 2014a, Obradovich et al 2014. In the NW Atlantic, capelin are a key driver in the biomass dynamics of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua (Buren et al 2014b), linked to changes in fecundity of Northwest Atlantic harp seals Pagophilus groenlandicus (Stenson et al 2016), and are key prey for Greenland halibut Reinhardtius hippoglossoides (Dwyer et al 2010), whales (Gulka et al 2017, J. Lawson & G. Stenson unpubl. data), and seabirds (Davoren & Montevecchi 2003, Montevecchi 2007, Buren et al 2012.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting capelin Mallotus villosus biomass on the Newfoundland shelf

Lewis¹,

Buren²,

Regular³

et al. 2019

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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Forage fish play a central role in marine ecosystems, acting as a trophic link between plankton and larger marine species. They also contribute to global economies by directly and indirectly supporting commercial and recreational fisheries. Managing forage fish is problematic due to their high spatial-temporal variation in biomass and strong responses to environmental variability. A variety of mechanisms have been proposed to explain variation in capelin Mallotus villosus biomass, a keystone forage fish in the Northwest Atlantic, including factors influencing cohort strength such as larval abundance and larval food (i.e. Pseudocalanus spp.) availability. Alternately, pre-spawning mortality of capelin may be regulated by the timing of the retreat of sea ice (t ice) via its effects on the spring bloom and the availability of food (e.g. Calanus spp.) for adult capelin, or by the condition of adult capelin the previous fall. Here, we used a Bayesian approach in a multimodel inference framework to assess support for a series of hypotheses explaining the population dynamics of capelin. The most parsimonious model included larval abundance, t ice , and capelin condition in the fall, and explained 68% of the variance in capelin biomass. These results are consistent with much of the literature that suggests capelin in the Northwest Atlantic are driven by bottom-up forces. This model allows us to produce forecasts of capelin biomass 1−2 management cycles in advance, which will be a valuable contribution to the management of this forage fish species.

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“…Environmental fluctuations are seen to impact long‐lived marine species’ fecundity rather than survival (Reed, Harris, & Wanless, ; Stenson et al, ). Our study showed an impact of female mass on the probability of pupping but did not detect an effect on survival.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The probability of a seal giving birth to a pup is associated with individual body condition, which results from foraging success (Ferguson et al, 2017;Guinet, Roux, Bonnet, & Mison, 1998;Stenson, Buren, & Koen-Alonso, 2016). The mass of a mature female at the start of lactation is a proxy for body condition which can vary between years but also sets limits on maternal expenditure (the net change in maternal mass from birth to weaning of the pup) in phocid seals (Arnbom, Fedak, & Boyd, 1997).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environment‐sensitive mass changes influence breeding frequency in a capital breeding marine top predator

Smout

King

Pomeroy

2019

Journal of Animal Ecology

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The trade‐off between survival and reproduction in resource‐limited iteroparous animals can result in some individuals missing some breeding opportunities. In practice, even with the best observation regimes, deciding whether ‘missed’ years represent real pauses in breeding or failures to detect breeding can be difficult, posing problems for the estimation of individual reproductive output and overall population fecundity. We corrected fecundity estimates by determining whether breeding had occurred in skipped years, using long‐term capture–recapture observation datasets with parallel longitudinal mass measurements, based on informative underlying relationships between individuals’ mass, breeding status and environmental drivers in a capital breeding phocid, the grey seal. Bayesian modelling considered interacting processes jointly: temporal changes in a phenotypic covariate (mass); relationship of mass to breeding probability; effects of maternal breeding state and mark type on resighting. Full reproductive histories were imputed, with the status of unobserved animals estimated as breeding or non‐breeding, accounting for local environmental variation. Overall fecundity was then derived for Scottish breeding colonies with contrasting pup production trends. Maternal mass affected breeding likelihood. Mothers with low body mass at the end of breeding were less likely to bear a pup the following year. Successive breeding episodes incurred a cost in reduced body mass which was more pronounced for North Rona, Outer Hebrides (NR) mothers. Skipping breeding increased subsequent pupping probability substantially for low mass females. Poor environmental conditions were associated with declines in breeding probability at both colonies. Seal mass gain between breeding seasons was (a) negatively associated with lagged North Atlantic Oscillation for seals at NR and (b) positively associated with an index of seal prey (Ammodytes spp) abundance at Isle of May, Firth of Forth (IM). Overall fecundity was marginally greater at IM (increasing/stable pup production) than at NR (decreasing). No effects of mass were detected on maternal survival. Skipping breeding in female grey seals appears to be an individual mass‐dependent constraint moderated by previous reproductive output and local environmental conditions. Different demographic trends at breeding colonies were consistent with the fecundities estimated using this method, which is general and adaptable to other situations.

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The impact of changing climate and abundance on reproduction in an ice-dependent species, the Northwest Atlantic harp seal,Pagophilus groenlandicus

Cited by 19 publications

References 60 publications

Use of state‐space modelling to identify ecological covariates associated with trends in pinniped demography

Use of state‐space modelling to identify ecological covariates associated with trends in pinniped demography

Forecasting capelin Mallotus villosus biomass on the Newfoundland shelf

Environment‐sensitive mass changes influence breeding frequency in a capital breeding marine top predator

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