The impact of anti-establishment parties on the electoral success of independent local lists: Evidence from Germany

Abstract

Independent local lists (ILL) have become an important non-partisan actor in many local elections. However, little is known about which factors explain their electoral success. Drawing on recent contributions regarding the anti-establishment attitudes of many ILL, we argue that the rise of anti-establishment parties, especially the rise of populist radical-right parties, potentially harms the electoral success of ILL. Our main argument is that both actors attract voters that are dissatisfied with established parties. To test this hypothesis, we draw on the case of municipal elections in the German federal state of Lower Saxony. In the election of 2016, the populist radical-right party AfD competed in only a subset of all municipalities, meaning that some voters could cast their vote for the AfD in only some of the municipalities. We use a difference-in-differences approach to estimate the effect of the AfD on independent local list’s vote share and demonstrate that ILL suffered strongly from the entrance of the AfD to the electoral arena. More specifically, our findings demonstrate that the increase in the success of ILL was halted in municipalities in which the AfD competed, while it continued to increase in regions where the AfD was absent. These findings suggest that the increasing success of ILL is due to voters’ dissatisfaction with the established parties and not necessarily due to an increasing interest in local issues.

Dutch municipal elections 1998-2018: what explains the electoral success of local parties?

“…However, this effect is not statistically significant. This is a different result than in Jankowski, Juen, and Tepe (2020). One reason for this could be that the Dutch ILP's are already more established than German ILP's in LS.…”

“…In 2016 the AfD had not only become a successful party in Germany, but it had also transformed into a populist radical-right party with strong anti-establishment attitudes. Jankowski, Juen, and Tepe (2020) argue that the rise of antiestablishment parties, especially the rise of populist radical-right parties, potentially harms the electoral success of ILL. Moreover, the AfD competed in 88 of 398 municipalities in LS, which is 28.9%.…”

“…Dodeigne, Close, and Teuber (2021) highlight the negative effect of a municipality's size on the localised local party system. Jankowski, Juen, and Tepe (2020) show that in municipalities of the German state of Lower Saxony Independent Local Lists received in 2016 15.6% of the votes. Moreover, they also show that in the election of 2016 in which the anti-establishment party AFD contested the election, the vote share of ILL decreased by more than three percentage points.…”

Lokal extrem Rechts

“…So wird es auch in einem Interview beschrieben: » [Die] freie Wählergemeinschaft mit Unabhängigen [...] ist eine Möglichkeit, sich kritisch einzubringen und [führt dazu, dass] die AfD da nicht Fuß fassen kann« (BBs_22). In die gleiche Richtung weist auch eine Studie zu Kommunalwahlen in Sachsen-Anhalt, die beobachtet, dass dort, wo Wähler:innengemeinschaften langfristig dominant sind, AfD-Kandidat:innen seltener antreten, wohingegen dort, wo die AfD Kandidat:innen aufstellt, die kommunalen Wähler:innengemeinschaften signifikant an Zustimmung einbüßen (Jankowski et al 2022). Lokale Wähler:innengemeinschaften und radikale Rechte stehen demnach auf der kommunalen Politikebene in starker Konkurrenz zueinander; auf der anderen Seite können Wähler:innengemeinschaften aber auch ein nützliches organisatorisches Vehikel rechter Akteur:innen darstellen, um Zugang zu den kommunalen Gremien zu finden (Krappidel 2016).…”

Rage against the party machine? Wählergemeinschaften als Alternative im kommunalpolitischen Wettbewerb

“…Das Selbstverständnis als Nicht-oder Antipartei prägt die Forschung zu Wählergemeinschaften seit jeher. Es hat jedoch in den vergangenen Jahren aufgrund des Aufstiegs populistischer Parteien und Anti-Establishment-Parteien weiter an Bedeutung gewonnen und eine Reihe von Untersuchungen angeregt (Angenendt 2015(Angenendt , 2018aJankowski et al 2020). Auf der einen Seite seien Wählergemeinschaften der Prototyp einer unpolitischen und am örtlichen Gemeinwohl orientierten Gruppierung, die gut zur Funktionsweise der Kommunalpolitik und dem Wunsch vieler Bürger nach einer unparteiischen Politik vor Ort passe (Klotzsch 1984(Klotzsch , S. 2438Möller 1985, S. 193;Stockinger 1975).…”