Background
Prospective audit with feedback (PAF) is an impactful strategy for antimicrobial stewardship program (ASP) activities. However, because PAF requires reviewing large numbers of antimicrobial orders on a case-by-case basis, PAF programs are highly resource-intensive. The current study aimed to identify predictors of ASP intervention (i.e., feedback), and to build models to identify orders that can be safely bypassed from review, to make PAF programs more efficient.
Methods
We performed a retrospective cross-sectional study of inpatient antimicrobial orders reviewed by the University of Maryland Medical Center’s PAF program between 2017–2019. We evaluated the relationship between antimicrobial and patient characteristics with ASP intervention using multivariable logistic regression models. Separately, we built prediction models for ASP intervention using statistical and machine learning approaches and evaluated performance on held-out data.
Results
Across 17,503 PAF reviews, 4,219 (24%) resulted in intervention. In adjusted analyses, a clinical pharmacist on the ordering unit or receipt of an ID consult were associated with 17% and 56% lower intervention odds, respectively (aORs 0.83 and 0.44, P values ≤ 0.001). Fluoroquinolones had the highest adjusted intervention odds (aOR 3.22, 95% CI: 2.63–3.96). A machine learning classifier (C-statistic 0.76) reduced reviews by 49% while achieving 78% sensitivity. A “workflow simplified” regression model that restricted to antimicrobial class and clinical indication variables, two strong machine-learning-identified predictors, reduced reviews by one-third while achieving 81% sensitivity.
Conclusions
Prediction models substantially reduced PAF review caseloads while maintaining high sensitivities. Our results and approach may offer a blueprint for other ASPs.