The Impact of Air Pollution on Infant Mortality: Evidence from Geographic Variation in Pollution Shocks Induced by a Recession

Abstract

This study uses sharp, differential air quality changes across sites attributable to geographic variation in the effects of the 1981-82 recession to estimate the relationship between infant mortality and particulates air pollution. It is shown that in the narrow period of 1980-82, there was substantial variation across counties in changes in particulates pollution, and that these differential pollution reductions appear to be orthogonal to changes in a multitude of other factors that may be related to infant mortality.Using the most detailed and comprehensive data available, we find that a 1 mg/m 3 reduction in particulates results in about 4-8 fewer infant deaths per 100,000 live births at the county level (a 0.35-0.45 elasticity). The estimated effects are driven almost entirely by fewer deaths occurring within one month and one day of birth, suggesting that fetal exposure to pollution has adverse health consequences. The estimated effects of the pollution reductions on infant birth weight provide evidence consistent with this potential pathophysiologic mechanism. The analysis also reveals a nonlinear relationship between pollution and infant mortality at the county level. Importantly, the estimates are remarkably stable across a variety of specifications. All of these findings are masked in "conventional" analyses based on less credible research designs.

Recessions are Not Good for Your Health: The Counter-Cyclical Health Outcomes Revisited

“…Studies from developed countries, the U.S. in particular, showed that recessions can be "good for your health" (Ruhm, 2000;Chay and Greenstone, 2003;Dehejia and Lleras Muney, 2004). In contrast, most studies from developing countries showed that child health is procyclical (Paxson and Schady, 2005 for Peru; Bhalotra, 2010 for India; Cruces et al, 2012 andBozzoli andQuintana-Domeque, 2014 for Argentina; Baird et al, 2011 for a large set of developing countries); an obvious exception is the study of Miller and Urdinola (2010) where they show that infant mortality increases with income in Colombia.…”

Air pollution, health, and socio-economic status: the effect of outdoor air quality on childhood asthma

“…Chay and Greenstone (2001) use declines in pollution that resulted from the 1980-82 recession and find a strong link between total suspended particles and infant mortality. Since most infant mortality is due to respiratory failure, it is reasonable to suspect that pollution could be related to other respiratory illnesses, such as asthma.…”

Does Air Quality Matter? Evidence from the Housing Market

“…Children, the elderly and people suffering from heart or lung disease (e.g., asthma) are especially at risk. Recent research has linked particulates pollution to increased mortality rates (Dockery, et al 1993;Ransom and Pope 1995;Greenstone 2003a &2003b).…”