The impact of agricultural trade approaches on global economic modeling

Zhao, Xin; Wise, Marshall; Waldhoff, Stephanie; Kyle, Page; Huster, Jonathan E.; Ramig, Christopher; Rafelski, Lauren Elmegreen; Patel, Pralit; Calvin, Katherine

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102413

Cited by 17 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, we evaluate 40 basins in total in this study. The version of GCAM used in this work considers a single, integrated world market for crop trade rather than segmented regional markets, thus representing fewer barriers to globally interconnected trade (Zhao et al, 2022). Zhao et al (2021) find that trade barriers have been decreasing over time, therefore our consideration of a single global market is reasonable given our end-of-century focus.…”

Section: Gcammentioning

confidence: 99%

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Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean

et al. 2022

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Future water scarcity is a global concern with impacts across the energy, water, and land (EWL) sectors. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are significant producers of agricultural goods, so disruptions resulting from water scarcity in LAC have global importance. Understanding where water scarcity in LAC could occur and what could exacerbate it is critical for strategic resource management and planning, both regionally and globally. Assessing future water scarcity in LAC is challenging given the complex interactions among the EWL sectors and the multiple uncertainties acting across spatial scales. To illuminate these dynamics, we use scenario discovery on a large ensemble representing diverse futures simulated using an integrated human‐environmental systems model. We quantify future water scarcity and its economic impacts across several physical and economic metrics. We find that future levels of reservoir storage expansion could be a significant driver of physical and economic water scarcity, highlighting the importance of strategic water infrastructure development in maintaining future water availability. Changes in crop profit are driven by both water supply and demand, emphasizing the complexity of EWL multisector dynamics. While most of LAC is poised to have abundant land and water resources available for future development, basins in Mexico and along the Pacific coast of South America experience high exposure to severe outcomes and uncertainty across outcomes for at least one metric. We find that drivers of severe scarcity vary spatially and across metrics, highlighting the region's heterogeneity and the importance of considering multiple metrics to assess water scarcity.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Gcammentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean

et al. 2022

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“…For this study, we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), a dynamic-recursive, detailed-process IAM (Fisher-Vanden & Weyant, 2020;Weyant, 2017) covering the interactions between socio-economic, energy, land, water, and climate systems globally in response to human and earth system drivers (Calvin et al, 2019). GCAM has been used for decades in major studies assessing climate mitigation measures globally (e.g., Ou et al, 2022) and has recently been used to explore alternative global trade futures (Zhao et al, 2021(Zhao et al, , 2022. GCAM has also been used extensively to explore the implications of global change for societally relevant environmental outcomes across the world's river basins and land regions, for metrics such as water use and scarcity (e.g., Dolan et al, 2021;Hejazi et al, 2014), and LUC and scarcity (Dolan et al, 2022;Wise et al, 2014).…”

Section: Gcam Assumptionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Long-term trends such as globalization and the lowering of market barriers and trade costs have grown the value of global agricultural trade more than seven-fold in the last three decades (Zhao et al, 2021(Zhao et al, , 2022. Future agricultural production and trade dynamics will be influenced by the extent to which these trends continue.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Trade and Climate Mitigation Interactions Create Agro‐Economic Opportunities With Social and Environmental Trade‐Offs in Latin America and the Caribbean

et al. 2023

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Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is a major agricultural exporting region, and is likely to maintain this pivotal role in the coming decades (CELAC et al., 2016;Morris et al., 2020). The region supplies the world with large fractions of several notable commodities; for example, LAC exported 91 million tonnes (Mt) of soybeans (59% of world exports), 22 Mt of raw sugar (62%), 4.2 Mt of coffee (52%) and 2.9 Mt of beef products (38%) in 2019 (FAOSTAT, 2022). Major agricultural exporters include Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, and Chile (Morris et al., 2020;Willaarts et al., 2014). It is critical to understand the nature of future agricultural production and trade opportunities that will emerge across the region, because those opportunities will directly affect societal objectives such as economic growth and sustainable development. Agriculture currently accounts for more than 5% of GDP in 20 LAC countries, and contributes to economic growth and diversification, employment, poverty reduction, food security, and ecosystem services (Morris et al., 2020). How agricultural production and trade dynamics unfold in LAC also has implications far beyond the region. International agricultural trade originating from LAC represents a large and growing source of global supply-chain risk, with the potential to create complex and far-reaching food, energy, and water security risks (Taherzadeh et al., 2021).Despite its importance, the scale of future agricultural production and trade opportunities in LAC is not well understood. Numerous forces, both within and outside LAC, could shape these opportunities, as well as their economic and environmental consequences across the region. For example, technological change in agriculture and socio-economic growth may greatly increase the supply of and demand for agricultural commodities

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“…The accuracy of the mycotoxin analysis is greatly dependent on the accuracy of sampling. The distribution of analytes in the food/feed commodities is highly heterogeneous [ 72 ]. A previous study showed that the coefficient of variation in the determination of AF concentration in peanuts is between 60% and 120% for sampling, dropped to 20% for subsampling, and remained 10% for the analysis [ 73 ].…”

Section: Pitfalls Of Mycotoxin Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent advances in immunoassay-based mycotoxin analysis and toxicogenomic technologies

Liew¹,

Sabran²

2022

Journal of Food and Drug Analysis

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The co-occurrence and accumulation of mycotoxin in food and feed constitutes a major issue to food safety, food security, and public health. Accurate and sensitive mycotoxins analysis can avoid toxin contamination as well as reduce food wastage caused by false positive results. This mini review focuses on the recent advance in detection methods for multiple mycotoxins, which mainly depends on immunoassay technologies. Advance immunoassay technologies integrated in mycotoxin analysis enable simultaneous detection of multiple mycotoxins and enhance the outcomes’ quality. It highlights toxicogenomic as novel approach for hazard assessment by utilizing computational methods to map molecular events and biological processes. Indeed, toxicogenomic is a powerful tool to understand health effects from mycotoxin exposure as it offers insight on the mechanisms by which mycotoxins exposures cause diseases.

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The impact of agricultural trade approaches on global economic modeling

Cited by 17 publications

References 56 publications

Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean

Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean

Trade and Climate Mitigation Interactions Create Agro‐Economic Opportunities With Social and Environmental Trade‐Offs in Latin America and the Caribbean

Recent advances in immunoassay-based mycotoxin analysis and toxicogenomic technologies

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