The impact of a COVID-19 lockdown on work productivity under good and poor compliance

Abstract

Background In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments across the globe have imposed strict social distancing measures. Public compliance to such measures is essential for their success yet the economic consequences of compliance are unknown. This is the first study to analyse the effects of good compliance compared to poor compliance to a COVID-19 suppression strategy (i.e. lockdown) on work productivity. Methods We estimate the differences in work productivity comparing a scenario of good compliance with one of poor compliance to the UK government COVID-19 suppression strategy. We use projections of the impact of the UK suppression strategy on mortality and morbidity from an individual-based epidemiological model combined with an economic model representative of the labour force in Wales and England. Results We find that productivity effects of good compliance significantly exceed those of poor compliance and increase with the duration of the lockdown. After three months of the lockdown, work productivity in good compliance is £398.58 million higher compared with that of poor compliance. 75% of the differences is explained by productivity effects due to morbidity and non-health reasons and 25% attributed to avoided losses due to pre-mature mortality. Conclusion Good compliance to social distancing measures exceeds positive economic effects, in addition to health benefits. This is an important finding for current economic and health policy. It highlights the importance to set clear guidelines for the public, to build trust and support for the rules and if necessary, to enforce good compliance to social distancing measures.

Detrimental Effects of COVID-19 Measures on Mental Health and Social-Economic Disparities

“…Adherence to the life-changing social measures, particularly at the beginning of the pandemic prior to vaccine design, is a major determinant of COVID-19 outcomes and strongly relies on shared cultural beliefs about work [34]. Alfano investigated the speculative aggravating or ameliorating role of work ethics on the COVID-19 outcomes in many European countries [35]. They witnessed the higher burden of the disease in nations with a constellation of perceptions centered on the value of work, such as the deification of workaholics, disparaging unemployed people who rely on financial cushions, and perceiving productivity increases by hard work.…”

“…For instance, the abrupt shutdown of workplaces in cultures with high values for work, insufficient resources for smart working along with inadequate governmental support programs might lay a foundation for firstly the rise in mental disorders during quarantine. Secondly, in lingering periods, these may lead to rebound amplification of uncontrolled workforce with inadequate workplace safety measures ensuing mounting new cases compared to policies to keep firms afloat while establishing safe workplace atmospheres [35].…”

Directions of organizational and economic changes in occupational health services as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic – challenges to the health crises

“…Multisektorowe inwestycje na różnych poziomach zarządzania ochroną zdrowia, pionowa integracja polityk zdrowotnych, spójna komunikacja, zaangażowanie lokalnych interesariuszy ochrony zdrowia, innowacyjne technologie medyczne i nowoczesne metody zarządzania w ochronie zdrowia ukierunkowane na maksymalizację efektów zdrowotnych to nie tylko kierunki inwestowania odniesione do całych systemów ochrony zdrowia, ale również do jego poszczególnych elementów, do których niewątpliwie zalicza się ochronę zdrowia pracujących. Argumentem przemawiającym za racjonalną alokacją zasobów finansowych w tym ogniwie systemu jest również wpływ ochrony zdrowia pracujących na produktywność w gospodarce narodowej [30].…”

Using correlation analysis to examine the impact of Covid-19 pandemics on various socioeconomic aspects: Case study of Indonesia

“…Not enough, it predicted economic uncertainty to reduce well-being (Thygesen et al, 2021;Bathina et al, 2021). Suryahadi et al (2021), Sethi (2022), andOhrnberger et al (2021) linked the government's anticipation through intensive lockdowns, so that various industries reformed the system and rejuvenated with more modern technology. Companies quickly adapt and adopt production tools dynamically, but labor productivity fluctuations trigger employees to lose their jobs, mass unemployment, and encourage poverty.…”