The immune evasion ability of Delta variant is comparable to that of Beta variant in South Africa

Abstract

Background The high immune evasion ability of SARS-COV-2 Omicron variant surprised the world and appears to be far stronger than any previous variant. Previous to Omicron it has been difficult to assess and compare immune evasion ability of different variants, including the Beta and Delta variants, because of the relatively small numbers of reinfections and because of the problems in correctly identifying reinfections in the population. This has led to different claims appearing in the literature. Thus we find claims of both high and low immune evasion for the Beta variant. Some findings have suggested that the Beta variant has a higher immune evasion ability than the Delta variant in South Africa, and others that it has a lower ability. MethodIn this brief report, we re-analyse a unique dataset of variant-specific reinfection data and a simple model to correct for the infection attack rates of different variants.Result We find that a model with the Delta variant to have an equal or higher immune evasion ability than Beta variant is compatible with the data.ConclusionWe conclude that the immune evasion ability of Beta variant is not stronger than Delta variant, and indeed, the immune evasion abilities of both variants are weak in South Africa.

Prediction of the next major outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland China and a vaccination strategy for it

“…However, many studies have provided evidence supporting the conclusion that the vaccine's protection against infection will be weakened due to the decline of immunity after vaccination, which increases the uncertainty after vaccination [7–12]. In addition, because of the rapid variation of strains, the effectiveness of existing vaccines against mutant strains will be significantly reduced [13,14]. In particular, the current (2023) vaccine will have lower protection against infection with the Delta virus which appeared in 2021 and against the Omicron virus that arose in 2022 [15].…”