The Illusion of Unique Invulnerability and the Use of Effective Contraception

Burger, Jerry M.; Burns, Linda Hammer

doi:10.1177/0146167288142005

Cited by 146 publications

(76 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…A wealth of research has found that people view the future through rose-tinted glasses, believing that they are more likely than others to undertake positive behaviors or to experience positive events and are less likely to experience negative events or to undertake negative behaviors (Armor and Taylor 2002;Burger and Burns 1988;McKenna 1993;Perlof and Fetzer 1986;Taylor and Brown 1988;Weinstein 1980). Such unrealistic optimism effects (sometimes called comparative optimism or illusory optimism effects) occur whether people are making explicitly comparative judgments (e.g., "Compared to an average student, how likely are you to catch an STD in the next year?")…”

Section: Unrealistic Optimismmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They exist in situations where individuals have substantial influence over outcomes (behavioral predictions) as well as in settings where fate plays a more significant role (likelihood estimates). Examples of the behavioral predictions include optimistic estimates that one will get a good first job (Weinstein 1980), avoid an unwanted pregnancy (Burger and Burns 1988), and avoid addiction to drugs (Weinstein 1987). Examples of optimistic likelihood estimates include unrealistically low estimates for the likelihood one will contract lung cancer (Perlof & Fetzer 1986), be in a car accident (McKenna 1993) or be the victim of a crime (Perlof & Fetzer 1986).…”

Section: Unrealistic Optimismmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Unrealistically Optimistic Consumers: A Selective Hypothesis Testing Account for Optimism in Predictions of Future Behavior

Tanner

2009

J Consum Res

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Individuals tend to make unrealistically optimistic self assessments about themselves and their future behavior. While little studied in marketing, unrealistic optimism by consumers may have negative consequences for both marketers and consumers. This dissertation proposes and explores a selective hypothesis testing view of unrealistic optimism. Specifically, I propose that consumers adopt the tentative hypothesis that they will behave in an ideal fashion when predicting their future behavior. They then selectively test this hypothesis by accessing information consistent with it, with the ultimate consequence being unrealistically optimistic predictions of future behavior.To validate this theory I use the following experimental paradigm. I have individuals first provide an idealized estimate for the behavior of interest (e.g., In an ideal world, how often would you exercise next week?) and then provide a second estimate (e.g., How often will you exercise next week?). The idea here is that by making the idealized nature of the ideal behavior salient consumers will be less likely to test a hypothesis of ideal behavior when subsequently providing an estimate. In a series of ten studies, I find that prior consideration of idealistic performance does indeed temper optimism in subsequent self-assessments (henceforth post-ideal estimates). Specifically, post-ideal estimates are free of relative optimism versus expectations of others v behaviors, are more reflective of actual past behavior, and better predict actual future behavior. Furthermore, this attenuation of optimism is mediated by increased consideration of realistic thoughts and is moderated by both expertise and decisiveness.All of these results are consistent with selective hypothesis testing being a key driver of unrealistic optimism. Additionally I demonstrate that the debiasing effect of my method extends from behaviors to above average (and in some cases below average) views of traits and abilities. As such my work raises the possibility that selective hypothesis testing underlies a wide variety of self assessment biases.Having found strong support for my selective hypothesis testing view of unrealistic optimism, I also explore the potential consequences that unrealistic optimism may have for consumer decisions. In particular, I demonstrate that unrealistically optimistic predictions of future behavior appear to be associated with greater willingness to pay for socially desirable products (e.g., treadmills) and that attenuation of such optimism can reduce willingness to pay. Some researchers have argued that unrealistic optimism with respect to future behavior causes people to make vice choices in the present because they expect to make virtuous choices in the future (Kahn and Dhar 2007). If so, then the current research suggests one way to help consumers from falling into the trap of justifying vice behaviors with optimistically held views about future actions.vi

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Section: Unrealistic Optimismmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Unrealistic Optimismmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unrealistically Optimistic Consumers: A Selective Hypothesis Testing Account for Optimism in Predictions of Future Behavior

Tanner

2009

J Consum Res

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“…In some cases, they lead to a complacency in which people ignore legitimate risks (Lehman & Taylor, 1988;Weinstein, 1982) and fail to take necessary actions or precautions (Perloff, 1983). For example, college women who harbor illusions of "unique invulnerability" about becoming pregnant are less likely than others to use effective contraception (Burger & Burns, 1988). Similarly, people who believe they will not become sick are less likely than others to immunize themselves against the flu (Larwood, 1978).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Self‐Enhancement and Social Responsibility: On Caring More, but Doing Less, Than Others

White

Plous

1995

J Applied Social Pyschol

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Self-enhancement biases have been found in a variety of self-rated skills, traits, and abilities, yet past research has not examined whether people show such biases in ratings of their social concern and activism. In the present paper, we report the results of two surveys on this question. In the first survey, 549 adults rated their level of concern and activism on one of six different issues (e.g., homelessness). The results showed a general pattern of self-enhancement in professed concern but self-deprecation in activism. In the second survey, a random-digit dialing method was used to contact a representative sample of the general public. A total of 817 respondents rated their level of concern and activism on the issues of environmental protection, animal welfare, and world hunger. The second survey also explored two techniques for debiasing self-enhancement in concern: one based on a cognitive con sistency model, and one based on the salience of others' actions. Findings from the second survey replicated those of the first, and both debiasing techniques failed to reduce self-ratings of concern. Moreover, a sizable number of respondents said that they would do more if others showed more concern. These results are consistent with a social dilemma in which citizens feel a personal sense of concern, but are reluctant to act until others show greater concern.

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“…Age-specific under· standing of children's comparative risk judgments is important not only for the formulation of intervention programs but also because, at least in adults, risk perceptions have been linked to risky actions. In a study of contraceptive use, for example, Burger and Burns (1988) found that higher levels of optimistic bias regarding the probability of experiencing unwanted pregnancy were associated with lower rates of effective contraception. Risk perceptions may also be linked to behavioral intentions, as illustrated by a recent report that high school students' perceived vulnerability to AIDS was associated with their intentions to change risk -promoting behaviors (Gladis et al, 1992).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimism in children's judgments of health and environmental risks.

Whalen¹,

Henker²,

O'Neil³

et al. 1994

Health Psychology

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Although optimistic bias has been well documented for adults, little is known about how children view their own risks vis-a· vis those of their peers. Two studies of 6th graders examined optimism and the degree of differentiation in perceived risks across diverse health, lifestyle, and environmental problems. The findings revealed perceptions of relative invulnerability and highly differentiated risk assessments. The strongest levels of optimism emerged for controllable and stigmatizing events such as illicit drugs, smoking. and AIDS. The effects of gender, assessment context. and methodological variations were minimal. Discussion focused on the implications for health-promoting interventions with school-age children, the need for developmental information about risk perception processes, and the difficulty of distinguishing realistic from biased optimism.Key words: optimism. risk perception, children, AIDS, perceived control, vulnerability People are basically optimistic. A large and diverse body of literature attests to the fact that most people, under most conditions, view their own chances of misfortune as lower lhan those of other people (e.g

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The Illusion of Unique Invulnerability and the Use of Effective Contraception

Cited by 146 publications

References 8 publications

Unrealistically Optimistic Consumers: A Selective Hypothesis Testing Account for Optimism in Predictions of Future Behavior

Unrealistically Optimistic Consumers: A Selective Hypothesis Testing Account for Optimism in Predictions of Future Behavior

Self‐Enhancement and Social Responsibility: On Caring More, but Doing Less, Than Others

Optimism in children's judgments of health and environmental risks.

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