The Ibn Khaldûn Trap and Great Power Competition with China

Abstract

The return of great power rivalry has been the defining feature of the 21st century. Since the beginning of the new millennium, China and Russia have openly defied the United States and upset the stability of the liberal international order. Both China and Russia share physical and material attributes possessed by the United States that are traditionally required for great power status: land mass, a sea portal, a large population, and technology to field and develop a competitive military capability. Most scholars and policymakers agree that China presents the largest challenge to US interests and the US-led liberal international order. Economic and military growth in China has been astounding, surpassing Russian expansion. China's outward extension is not primarily resource-based as is Russia's but multidimensional, posing a structural challenge to US military and economic dominance.Much ink has been spilled over the nature of US-China rivalry and whether the two great powers are destined for war. Structural factors figure prominently when predicting US-China relations. A famous deadly Greek trap describes how the fear of a hegemonic power sparks catastrophic war with a rising power. In the History of the Peloponnesian War, Thucydides writes, "What made

Grand strategy and the construction of the national interest: the underpinnings of Sino-US strategic competition

“…It affects, for instance, how new technological infrastructure is regulated, how global development is envisioned, and how the world responds to global health emergencies, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The “return of great power politics” has been described as the “defining feature of the twenty-first century” (Norrlöff 2021 , p. 7). Since 2018, the US government has referred to China and Russia as “strategic competitors” (USA 2018 ).…”