The history of UK weather forecasting: the changing role of the central guidance forecaster. Part 8. Operational forecasting in the twenty‐first century: enhanced capabilities from nowcasting to extended range

Abstract

High‐resolution models have brought about capabilities in forecasting that could barely have been envisaged decades ago. The same advances in computer power and atmospheric science that enabled successful high‐resolution modelling have also led to useful forecasts further into the medium range and beyond. However, there remain problems forecasting at very short range, in particular concerning convection, for which new products and techniques are being trialled at the Met Office. We examine how these latest developments present the forecaster not only with exciting opportunities, but also fresh challenges, in particular, interpreting the plethora of output now available, whilst adhering to tight operational deadlines.