The Heat Health Warning System in Germany—Application and Warnings for 2005 to 2019

Abstract

During intense heat episodes, the human population suffers from an increased morbidity and mortality. In order to minimize such negative health impacts, the general public and the public health authorities are informed and warned by means of an advanced procedure known as a “heat health warning system” (HHWS). It is aimed at triggering interventions and at taking preventive measures. The HHWS in Germany has been in operation since 2005. The present work is aimed at showing the updated structure of an advanced HHWS that has been developed further several times during its 15 years of operation. This is to impart knowledge to practitioners about the concept of the system. In Germany, dangerous heat episodes are predicted on the basis of the numerical weather forecast. The perceived temperature as an appropriate thermal index is calculated and used to assess the levels of heat stress. The thermo-physiologically based procedure contains variable thresholds taking into account the short time acclimatization of the people. The forecast system further comprises the nocturnal indoor conditions, the specific characteristics of the elderly population, and the elevation of a region. The heat warnings are automatically generated, but they are published with possible adjustments and a compulsory confirmation by the biometeorology forecaster. Preliminary studies indicate a reduction in the heat related outcomes. In addition, the extensive duration of the strongest heat wave in summer 2018, which lasted three weeks, highlights the necessity of the HHWS to protect human health and life.

Future heat waves over the Mediterranean from an Euro-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble

“…Extreme events and, in particular, heat waves such as the recent ones (2003,2010,2015 or 2018) over Europe 6,7 are likely to be attributed to this warming conditions 8 . Heat waves, due to the societal vulnerability and their effects over human health [9][10][11][12][13][14] , infrastructures 15,16 , agriculture 6 or natural ecosystems 1,17 , are considered among the most relevant extreme climatic events. For climate change projections these phenomena can become even more relevant, pointing to a clear increase in their frequency and duration throughout the 21 st century 1,[18][19][20] .…”

Event-Based Heat-Related Risk Assessment Model for South Korea Using Maximum Perceived Temperature, Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature, and Air Temperature Data

“…To explain the heat stress on elderly people, the PT should be tuned for this age group. Matzarakis et al [58] introduced the Klima-Michel senior model (KMSM) with a changed age, weight, and activity. The reference person was 75 years old, 1.75 m tall, weighed 70 kg and performed an activity equivalent to walking at a speed of 1 km/h.…”

Evaluating Mortality Response Associated with Two Different Nordic Heat Warning Systems in Riga, Latvia

“…Earlier studies suggest that sex can be an effect modifier and that in some locations one sex is more susceptible than the other one [ 6 , 11 , 49 , 50 ]. In addition, data from previous studies have shown that HWSs, often implemented as part of broader heat-health action plans, can have positive effects on the relationship between heat waves and mortality and have the potential to help prevent premature deaths [ 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 , 51 ]. However, this study does not provide enough information to evaluate the Latvian heat warning system and draw conclusions on its effect on heat-related mortality in Riga.…”

“…Heat warning systems (HWS) have been introduced in numerous countries worldwide, as HWS are generally seen as an important tool to minimize the negative health impacts of heatwaves, including heat-related mortality [ 20 , 21 ]. For example, after the implementation of a new HWS in Frankfurt (Germany), lower excess mortality was measured in the following years [ 22 ], and in France it was estimated that about 4400 premature deaths were prevented during the 2006 heat wave due to the introduction of a HWS in 2004 [ 23 ].…”