Abstract-Performance modelling unstructured mesh codes is a challenging process, due to the difficulty of capturing their memory access patterns, and their communication patterns at varying scale. In this paper we first develop extensions to an existing runtime performance model, aimed at overcoming the former, which we validate on up to 1,024 cores of a Haswellbased cluster, using both a geometric partitioning algorithm and ParMETIS to partition the input deck, with a maximum absolute runtime error of 12.63% and 11.55% respectively. To overcome the latter, we develop an application representative of the mesh partitioning process internal to an unstructured mesh code. This application is able to generate partitioning data that is usable with the performance model to produce predicted application runtimes within 7.31% of those produced using empirically collected data. We then demonstrate the use of the performance model by undertaking a predictive comparison among several partitioning algorithms on up to 30,000 cores. Additionally, we correctly predict the ineffectiveness of the geometric partitioning algorithm at 512 and 1024 cores.