The hammam effect or how a warm ocean enhances large scale atmospheric predictability

Faranda, Davide; Alvarez-Castro, M. Carmen; Messori, Gabriele; Rodrigues, David L.; Yiou, Pascal

doi:10.1038/s41467-019-09305-8

Cited by 63 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…The fact that the instantaneous dimension decreases from the waterbelt to the hot state, that is from a state with strong meridional temperature gradient to one where temperature distribution becomes more homogeneous, is in agreement with Shao (2017), based on the sample entropy method, and Lucarini and Bódai (2017); Faranda et al (2019) where it is shown that strong and localised temperature gradients are associated to low predictability. -In the snowball, there are no modes describing more than 4% of the total variance, showing the lack of marked spatial dynamics in this regime and supporting the fact that the measure given by the instantaneous dimension is spurious, as discussed before and in agreement with Lucarini et al (2010); Lucarini and Bódai (2017).…”

Section: Complexity Assessment Of Time Seriessupporting

confidence: 75%

Co-existing climate attractors in a coupled aquaplanet

2019

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The first step in exploring the properties of dynamical systems like the Earth climate is to identify the different phase space regions where the trajectories asymptotically evolve, called 'attractors'. In a given system, multiple attractors can co-exist under the effect of the same forcing. At the boundaries of their basins of attraction, small changes produce large effects. Therefore, they are key regions for understanding the system response to perturbations. Here we prove the existence of up to five attractors in a simplified climate system where the planet is entirely covered by the ocean (aquaplanet). These attractors range from a snowball to a hot state without sea ice, and their exact number depends on the details of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice configuration. We characterise each attractor by describing the associated climate feedbacks, by using the principal component analysis, and by

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Section: Complexity Assessment Of Time Seriessupporting

confidence: 75%

Co-existing climate attractors in a coupled aquaplanet

2019

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“…They can thus be computed for any state ζ on the underlying attractor – a state in our case being a latitude–longitude map of one or more atmospheric variables at a given time. d and θ −1 have recently been applied to a range of different climate variables over different geographical domains and were found to successfully reflect large‐scale features of atmospheric motions (Messori et al, ; Faranda et al ., ; ; ; ; Rodrigues et al ., ; Hochman et al ., ; ).…”

Section: Dynamical Systems Metricsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamical systems theory sheds new light on compound climate extremes in Europe and Eastern North America

Luca

Messori

Pons

et al. 2020

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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We propose a novel approach to the study of compound extremes, grounded in dynamical systems theory. Specifically, we present the co‐recurrence ratio (α), which elucidates the dependence structure between variables by quantifying their joint recurrences. This approach is applied to daily climate extremes, derived from the ERA‐Interim reanalysis over the 1979–2018 period. The analysis focuses on concurrent (i.e., same‐day) wet (total precipitation) and windy (10 m wind gusts) extremes in Europe and concurrent cold (2 m temperature) extremes in Eastern North America and wet extremes in Europe. Results for wet and windy extremes in Europe, which we use as a test‐bed for our methodology, show that α peaks during boreal winter. High α values correspond to wet and windy extremes in northwestern Europe, and to large‐scale conditions resembling the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This confirms earlier findings which link the positive NAO to a heightened frequency of extratropical cyclones impacting northwestern Europe. For the Eastern North America–Europe case, α extremes once again reflect concurrent climate extremes – in this case cold extremes over North America and wet extremes over Europe. Our analysis provides detailed spatial information on regional hotspots for these compound extreme occurrences, and encapsulates information on their spatial footprint which is typically not included in a conventional co‐occurrence analysis. We conclude that α successfully characterises compound extremes by reflecting the evolution of the associated meteorological maps. This approach is entirely general, and may be applied to different types of compound extremes and geographical regions.

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“…This opposition was motivated by a long sequence of papers that appeared between 1984 and 1991. The initial claim that low-dimensional models for complex phenomena could be derived using a very small numbers of variables (see e.g., Nicolis and Nicolis, 1984;Fraedrich, 1986) was disproved by rigorous numerical computations by Grassberger (1986) and Lorenz (1991).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Minimal dynamical systems model of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream via embedding of climate data

et al. 2019

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Abstract. We derive a minimal dynamical systems model for the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude jet dynamics by embedding atmospheric data and by investigating its properties (bifurcation structure, stability, local dimensions) for different atmospheric flow regimes. The derivation is a three-step process: first, we obtain a 1-D description of the midlatitude jet stream by computing the position of the jet at each longitude using ERA-Interim. Next, we use the embedding procedure to derive a map of the local jet position dynamics. Finally, we introduce the coupling and stochastic effects deriving from both atmospheric turbulence and topographic disturbances to the jet. We then analyze the dynamical properties of the model in different regimes: one that gives the closest representation of the properties extracted from real data; one featuring a stronger jet (strong coupling); one featuring a weaker jet (weak coupling); and one with modified topography. Our model, notwithstanding its simplicity, provides an instructive description of the dynamical properties of the atmospheric jet.

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The hammam effect or how a warm ocean enhances large scale atmospheric predictability

Cited by 63 publications

References 42 publications

Co-existing climate attractors in a coupled aquaplanet

Co-existing climate attractors in a coupled aquaplanet

Dynamical systems theory sheds new light on compound climate extremes in Europe and Eastern North America

Minimal dynamical systems model of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream via embedding of climate data

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