The Ground Truth program: simulations as test beds for social science research methods

Abstract

Social systems are uniquely complex and difficult to study, but understanding them is vital to solving the world’s problems. The Ground Truth program developed a new way of testing the research methods that attempt to understand and leverage the Human Domain and its associated complexities. The program developed simulations of social systems as virtual world test beds. Not only were these simulations able to produce data on future states of the system under various circumstances and scenarios, but their causal ground truth was also explicitly known. Research teams studied these virtual worlds, facilitating deep validation of causal inference, prediction, and prescription methods. The Ground Truth program model provides a way to test and validate research methods to an extent previously impossible, and to study the intricacies and interactions of different components of research.

Mental models, cognitive maps, and the challenge of quantitative analysis of their network representations

“…Using analytical‐thinking techniques (Baghaei Lakeh and Ghaffarzadegan, 2015, 2016; Brauch and Größler, 2022), simulation models (e.g. Naugle et al ., 2022) and “think‐aloud” methods have the potential of helping elicit mental models. We should also explore the potential of multidimensional measures (e.g.…”

What is (quantitative) system dynamics modeling? Defining characteristics and the opportunities they create

“…System dynamics modeling may also contribute to novel AI capabilities. For example, simulations can be used as testbeds for training AI and studying its utility (Lakkaraju et al, 2022;Naugle et al, 2022b). Some early efforts have been made to use AI for automated causal model generation (Rackauckas et al, 2020;Schoenberg, 2019).…”