The Grocery Trolley Race in Times of Covid-19: Evidence from Italy

Abstract

We study the effects of the containment measures imposed by the Italian Government during the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic on sales of the retail trade sector, focusing on different types of grocery chain stores. We document a sustained growth in revenues for storable products, beginning right before restrictions on mobility were introduced, and lasting throughout the whole lockdown period. The surge has been driven by the dynamics of smaller outlets, located in urban areas and closer to the city centre, while hypermarkets experienced a drop, probably relating to their more peripheral position. Thanks to the remarkable granularity of the Nielsen scanner data and the staggered implementation of restrictions across regions, we causally identify the short-term effects of mobility constraints on outlets' sales. According to our estimates, large grocery stores in areas subject to lockdown measures earned revenues around 10% lower than their control group did. In view of the protraction of the pandemic and the need for the Government to continue managing the containment of infections, our study helps quantifying the costs for the economy of mobility restrictions, also highlighting possible distortions arising among different categories of outlets. KeywordsCovid-19 • Grocery retail trade • Consumption hoarding • Mobility restrictions • Contagion risk JEL Classification D12 • D18 • I30We would like to thank Federico Cingano, Silvia Giacomelli, Sauro Mocetti, Sergio Santoro, and participants to the Bank of Italy Lunch seminar for useful suggestions. We are also indebted to Nicola De Carne (Nielsen) for data assistance. The views expressed here are our own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Italy.