Abstract:accurately assessing green and blue water requirements from croplands is fundamental to promote sustainable water management. In the last decade, global hydrological models have provided important insights into global patterns of water requirements for crop production. as important as these models are, they do not provide monthly crop-specific and year-specific data of green and blue water requirements. Gridded crop-specific products are therefore needed to better understand the spatial and temporal evolution … Show more
“…CWR and IWR were assessed using the WATNEEDS crop water model (ref. 29 has a detailed description). WATNEEDS is a global process-based crop water model that is set up to calculate CWR and IWR for 130 primary crops (nearly 100% of global crop production).…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…We first identify croplands affected by green water scarcity (GWS)—croplands where the natural soil moisture regime is insufficient to sustain unstressed crop production and additional water needs to be supplemented by irrigation to boost yields ( 10 ). Second, using estimates of irrigation water requirements (IWRs) based on a crop water model ( 29 ), we identify the currently rain-fed croplands that will need to be irrigated in a 3 °C warmer climate. Third, we map presently rain-fed agricultural regions where the local surface water and groundwater resources would allow for a sustainable expansion of irrigation using monthly water storages ( Materials and Methods ).…”
Climate change is expected to affect crop production worldwide, particularly in rain-fed agricultural regions. It is still unknown how irrigation water needs will change in a warmer planet and where freshwater will be locally available to expand irrigation without depleting freshwater resources. Here, we identify the rain-fed cropping systems that hold the greatest potential for investment in irrigation expansion because water will likely be available to suffice irrigation water demand. Using projections of renewable water availability and irrigation water demand under warming scenarios, we identify target regions where irrigation expansion may sustain crop production under climate change. Our results also show that global rain-fed croplands hold significant potential for sustainable irrigation expansion and that different irrigation strategies have different irrigation expansion potentials. Under a 3 °C warming, we find that a soft-path irrigation expansion with small monthly water storage and deficit irrigation has the potential to expand irrigated land by 70 million hectares and feed 300 million more people globally. We also find that a hard-path irrigation expansion with large annual water storage can sustainably expand irrigation up to 350 million hectares, while producing food for 1.4 billion more people globally. By identifying where irrigation can be expanded under a warmer climate, this work may serve as a starting point for investigating socioeconomic factors of irrigation expansion and may guide future research and resources toward those agricultural communities and water management institutions that will most need to adapt to climate change.
“…CWR and IWR were assessed using the WATNEEDS crop water model (ref. 29 has a detailed description). WATNEEDS is a global process-based crop water model that is set up to calculate CWR and IWR for 130 primary crops (nearly 100% of global crop production).…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…We first identify croplands affected by green water scarcity (GWS)—croplands where the natural soil moisture regime is insufficient to sustain unstressed crop production and additional water needs to be supplemented by irrigation to boost yields ( 10 ). Second, using estimates of irrigation water requirements (IWRs) based on a crop water model ( 29 ), we identify the currently rain-fed croplands that will need to be irrigated in a 3 °C warmer climate. Third, we map presently rain-fed agricultural regions where the local surface water and groundwater resources would allow for a sustainable expansion of irrigation using monthly water storages ( Materials and Methods ).…”
Climate change is expected to affect crop production worldwide, particularly in rain-fed agricultural regions. It is still unknown how irrigation water needs will change in a warmer planet and where freshwater will be locally available to expand irrigation without depleting freshwater resources. Here, we identify the rain-fed cropping systems that hold the greatest potential for investment in irrigation expansion because water will likely be available to suffice irrigation water demand. Using projections of renewable water availability and irrigation water demand under warming scenarios, we identify target regions where irrigation expansion may sustain crop production under climate change. Our results also show that global rain-fed croplands hold significant potential for sustainable irrigation expansion and that different irrigation strategies have different irrigation expansion potentials. Under a 3 °C warming, we find that a soft-path irrigation expansion with small monthly water storage and deficit irrigation has the potential to expand irrigated land by 70 million hectares and feed 300 million more people globally. We also find that a hard-path irrigation expansion with large annual water storage can sustainably expand irrigation up to 350 million hectares, while producing food for 1.4 billion more people globally. By identifying where irrigation can be expanded under a warmer climate, this work may serve as a starting point for investigating socioeconomic factors of irrigation expansion and may guide future research and resources toward those agricultural communities and water management institutions that will most need to adapt to climate change.
“…Irrigation requires energy to transfer water from the withdrawal source to the field-unless the local topography allows for gravity irrigation. We use the WATNEEDS crop water model 46 to assess the energy intensity of irrigation (i.e., the irrigation energy demand per unit of area) of each land deal, considering two of the most widespread irrigation systems: sprinkler and surface irrigation (Fig. 5).…”
The ongoing agrarian transition from small-holder farming to large-scale commercial agriculture is reshaping systems of production and human well-being in many regions. A fundamental part of this global transition is manifested in large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) by agribusinesses. Its energy implications, however, remain poorly understood. Here, we assess the multi-dimensional changes in fossil-fuel-based energy demand resulting from this agrarian transition. We focus on LSLAs by comparing two scenarios of low-input and high-input agricultural practices, exemplifying systems of production in place before and after the agrarian transition. A shift to high-input crop production requires industrial fertilizer application, mechanization of farming practices and irrigation, which increases by ~5 times fossil-fuel-based energy consumption compared to low-input agriculture. Given the high energy and carbon footprints of LSLAs and concerns over local energy access, our analysis highlights the need for an approach that prioritizes local resource access and incorporates energy-intensity analyses in land use governance.
“…We use the data estimates of calorie production under current conditions and in the case of maximized crop production by alleviation of water limitations (called the yield gap closure, or YGC scenario). Using a global process-based crop water model 43 , Rosa et al (2018) assessed crop water requirements to reach yield gap closure, i.e. the amount of irrigation water needed to complement input from precipitation so as to ensure sufficiently high soil moisture levels and satisfy the crop evapotranspirative demand.…”
Irrigation expansion onto rainfed croplands is an important part of the portfolio of agricultural measures, contributing to a more resilient crop production while enhancing agricultural yields. Existing global assessments of irrigation illustrate the biophysical potential, but generally do not account for socioeconomic and environmental constraints to irrigation deployment. Here we provide scenarios of regionalized sustainable irrigation expansion linked to socioeconomic projections from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways framework, while accounting for biophysical irrigation limits. Under a Sustainability scenario, we find that sustainable irrigation could feed 2 billion people globally by 2100. With an additional 90 million people, sub-Saharan Africa is the region with the highest percentage increase in people fed via sustainable irrigation deployment. However, even under the most optimistic scenarios only half of the theoretically possible global biophysical irrigation potential would be utilized after accounting for socioeconomic constraints. Our results highlight the need for appropriate representation of socioeconomic factors in scenarios of future irrigation deployment.
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