The Great Recession and America’s geography of unemployment

Abstract

BACKGROUNDThe Great Recession of [2007][2008][2009] was the most severe and lengthy economic crisis in the US since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The impacts on the population were multi-dimensional, but operated largely through local labor markets. OBJECTIVETo examine differences in recession-related changes in county unemployment rates and assess how population and place characteristics shaped these patterns. METHODSWe calculate and decompose Theil Indexes to describe recession-related changes in the distribution of unemployment rates between counties and states. We use exploratory spatial statistics to identify geographic clusters of counties that experienced similar changes in unemployment. We use spatial regression to evaluate associations between county-level recession impacts on unemployment and demographic composition, industrial structure, and state context. RESULTSThe recession was associated with increased inequality between county labor markets within states, but declining between-state differences. Counties that experienced disproportionate recession-related increases in unemployment were spatially clustered and characterized by large shares of historically disadvantaged racial and ethnic minority populations, low educational attainment, and heavy reliance on pro-cyclical industries. Associations between these sources of vulnerability were partially explained by unobserved state-level factors. CONCLUSIONSThe local consequences of macroeconomic trends are associated with county population characteristics, and the structural contexts and policy environments in which they are embedded. The recession placed upward pressure on within-state disparities in local labor market conditions. CONTRIBUTIONTo present new estimates of the recession's impact on local labor markets, quantify how heterogeneous impacts affected the distribution of unemployment prevalence, and identify county characteristics associated with disproportionately large recession-related increases in unemployment.

Suicide Trends Among and Within Urbanization Levels by Sex, Race/Ethnicity, Age Group, and Mechanism of Death — United States, 2001–2015

“…Over the study period, notable changes were observed in rates by urbanization level. A combination of factors, including economic and health indicators, likely contributed to the differences in annual suicide rate changes by urbanization level ( 14 – 18 ) observed in this study. Trends in suicide rates by sex, race/ethnicity, age group, and mechanism of death that are observed in the general population indicate that rates are consistently higher in rural communities.…”

“…A closer look at annual rate changes revealed substantial increases after 2005 for large metropolitan counties, after 2008 for medium/small metropolitan counties, and after 2007 for nonmetropolitan/rural counties. Although the Great Recession officially began in 2007 and ended in 2009 ( 14 ), differential effects were observed at different points in different geographic areas ( 14 ). Economic indicators (e.g., housing foreclosures, poverty, and unemployment) vary by urbanization level, with rural areas usually having greater prevalence of these negative factors ( 15 ).…”

The Spatial Concentration of America's Rural Poor Population: A Postrecession Update

“…Trends at the national level undoubtedly mask variation in poverty dynamics at lower levels, which has been shown to be the case in other dimensions of the recession's impact (Slack and Myers ; Thiede and Monnat ). With respect to poverty specifically, recent research by Iceland and Hernandez () and Jargowsky () supports the expectation of spatially uneven changes since 2000.…”

“…Overall, our findings contribute to well‐established literatures in rural sociology on spatial inequality and rural poverty, including work on “poor places” and concentrated poverty (Cotter ; Duncan ; Foulkes and Schafft ; Lichter and Johnson ; Lobao ; Lobao, Hooks, and Tickamyer ; Lobao and Saenz ; Nord, Luloff, and Jensen ; Tickamyer and Duncan ). We also add to the more recent literature on the spatially uneven impacts of the Great Recession (Rickman and Guettabi ; Slack and Myers ; Thiede and Monnat ; Ulrich‐Schad ; Ulrich‐Schad, Henly, and Safford ) and, we hope, provide an empirical basis for guiding social policy in rural America.…”

Getting Under the Skin: Children’s Health Disparities as Embodiment of Social Class

“…Recent evaluations of the Great Recession provide clear evidence that job loss and unemployment was not equally shared, but rather concentrated in areas with high concentrations of racial and ethnic minorities and individuals with low educational attainment (Thiede & Monnat, 2016). Areas with elevated unemployment experience greater unintentional injury of children (McClure, Kegler, Davey, & Clay, 2015), elevated preterm births (Messer et al, 2008), greater initiation of marijuana by adolescents (Tucker, Pollard, de la Haye, Kennedy, & Green, 2013), and more child maltreatment (Raissian, 2015).…”