The global, regional, and national burden of acute pancreatitis in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019

Abstract

Background Acute pancreatitis is a common and potentially lethal gastrointestinal disease, but literatures for the disease burden are scarce for many countries. Understanding the current burden of acute pancreatitis and the different trends across various countries is essential for formulating effective preventive intervenes. We aimed to report the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by acute pancreatitis in 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2019. Methods Estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) were used to analyze the epidemiology of acute pancreatitis at the global, regional, and national levels. We also reported the correlation between development status and acute pancreatitis’ age-standardized DALY rates, and calculated DALYs attributable to alcohol etiology that had evidence of causation with acute pancreatitis. All of the estimates were shown as counts and age-standardized rates per 100,000 person-years. Results There were 2,814,972.3 (95% UI 2,414,361.3–3,293,591.8) incident cases of acute pancreatitis occurred in 2019 globally; 1,273,955.2 (1,098,304.6–1,478,594.1) in women and 1,541,017.1 (1,307,264.4–1,814,454.3) in men. The global age-standardized incidence rate declined from 37.9/100,000 to 34.8/100,000 during 1990–2019, an annual decrease of 8.4% (5.9–10.4%). In 2019, there were 115,053.2 (104,304.4–128,173.4) deaths and 3,641,105.7 (3,282,952.5–4,026,948.1) DALYs due to acute pancreatitis. The global age-standardized mortality rate decreased by 17.2% (6.6–27.1%) annually from 1.7/100,000 in 1990 to 1.4/100,000 in 2019; over the same period, the age-standardized DALY rate declined by 17.6% (7.8–27.0%) annually. There were substantial differences in the incidence, mortality and DALYs across regions. Alcohol etiology attributed to a sizable fraction of acute pancreatitis-related deaths, especially in the high and high-middle SDI regions. Conclusion Substantial variation existed in the burden of acute pancreatitis worldwide, and the overall burden remains high with aging population. Geographically targeted considerations are needed to tailor future intervenes to relieve the burden of acute pancreatitis in specific countries, especially for Eastern Europe.

Acute pancreatitis in Australian adults: can administrative data help with healthcare planning?

“…In comparison to international epidemiological studies, a Global Burden of Disease Study found that worldwide the age‐standardized incidence of AP declined from 1990 to 2019, with an annual decrease of 8.4% 6 . That study reported an Australian age standardized incidence of 35–40/100 000 population, which is lower than the rate reported in this new analysis.…”

“…In comparison to international epidemiological studies, a Global Burden of Disease Study found that worldwide the agestandardized incidence of AP declined from 1990 to 2019, with an annual decrease of 8.4%. 6 That study reported an Australian age standardized incidence of 35-40/100 000 population, which is lower than the rate reported in this new analysis. From a regional perspective, the incidence of AP in New Zealand is reported as 58.42 per 100 000 population per year, with the incidence among Maori reaching 95.21 per 100 000 per year.…”

SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has impacted on patterns of aetiology for acute pancreatitis and management of gallstone pancreatitis in the UK

“…Previous estimates for mortality associated with AP range from 4.1% to 4.7%5 6; hence, the present study’s increased mortality rate, even in the absence of concomitant SARS-CoV-2 infection, suggests excess mortality secondary to AP during the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.…”

Machine Learning-Assisted Ensemble Analysis for the Prediction of Acute Pancreatitis with Acute Kidney Injury

“… 4 According to the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) report, there were 2814972.3 incident cases and 115053.2 deaths due to acute pancreatitis that occurred in 2019 globally. 5 Of note, the high mortality of severe AP is mainly related to other organ failure and secondary infection, which is the most important determinant of outcome in AP. 6 , 7 Herein, the symptoms and signs of organ failure (eg, respiratory, cardiovascular, and kidney) in patients with AP should be evaluated clinically for the appropriate classification.…”