The Geographic Variation of Surveillance and Zoonotic Spillover Potential of Influenza Viruses in Domestic Poultry and Swine

Abstract

BackgroundAvian and swine influenza viruses circulate worldwide and pose threats to both animal and human health. The design of global surveillance strategies is hindered by information gaps on the geospatial variation in virus emergence potential and existing surveillance efforts.MethodsWe developed a spatial framework to quantify the geographic variation in outbreak emergence potential based on indices of potential for animal-to-human and secondary human-to-human transmission. We then compared our resultant raster model of variation in emergence potential with the global distribution of recent surveillance efforts from 359105 reports of surveillance activities.ResultsOur framework identified regions of Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, Central America, and sub-Saharan Africa with high potential for influenza virus spillover. In the last 15 years, however, we found that 78.43% and 49.01% of high-risk areas lacked evidence of influenza virus surveillance in swine and domestic poultry, respectively.ConclusionsOur work highlights priority areas where improved surveillance and outbreak mitigation could enhance pandemic preparedness strategies.

Global subtype diversity, spatial distribution patterns, and phylogenetic analysis of avian influenza virus in water

“…Likewise, a large number of wild aquatic birds with a great potential to serve as carriers of AIV migrate to overwintering habitats in Asia annually (Deng et al., 2013; Khalil et al., 2020; Nakagawa et al., 2018). Nevertheless, it is well‐known that geographical variations on existing surveillance efforts can also potentially influence the AIV detection and its spatial distribution (Berger et al., 2018).…”

“…This type of farming is widespread in low‐income countries where the majority of poultry is raised under extensive conditions by family‐based smallholder farms (Gilbert et al., 2015). Therefore, regions such as Eastern Europe, Central America, and sub‐Saharan Africa also pose a high potential for AIV interspecies transmission; however, several high‐risk areas have inadequate influenza A virus surveillance (Berger et al., 2018).…”

Avian influenza virus in water: global subtype diversity and spatial distribution patterns

“…Likewise, a large number of wild aquatic birds with a great potential to serve as carriers of AIV migrate to overwintering habitats in Asia annually (Deng et al, 2013;Nakagawa et al, 2018). Nevertheless, it is well-known that geographical variations on existing surveillance efforts can also potentially influence the AIV detection and its spatial distribution (Berger et al, 2018).…”

“…This type of farming is widespread in low-income countries where the majority of poultry is raised under extensive conditions by family-based smallholder farms (Gilbert et al, 2015). Therefore, regions such as Eastern Europe, Central America, and sub-Saharan Africa also pose a high potential for AIV interspecies transmission; however, several high-risk areas have inadequate influenza A virus surveillance (Berger et al, 2018).…”

Influenza viruses and coronaviruses: Knowns, unknowns, and common research challenges

“…Tracking of the epidemiology and evolution of highy pathogenic avian IAVs has improved due to the rise in whole genome sequencing [ 9 ] and initiatives on sharing sequencing data such as the GISAID database [ 10 ]. Genomic surveillance was integrated with the collaborative expertise of virologists, ornithologists, ecologists, and mathematical modelers to identify bird species, time periods, habitats, and geographies that are associated with increased risks of transmission to humans and therefore require an active surveillance of wild and domestic animals [ 11 , 12 ]. This approach should be further developed and extended to CoVs.…”