The general circulation of the atmosphere: an evolving problem

Lorenz, Edward N.

doi:10.1034/j.1600-0889.1991.t01-3-00003.x

Cited by 2 publications

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“…If the data is not made stationary, the phase space reconstruction will not be properly achieved and the deterministic components of the data will not be adequately revealed leading to misleading results in the computed values of Lyapunov exponents and predictability [20,21]. 3. Estimate the embedding dimension m, using either the correlation dimension method or the method of false nearest neighbor (FNN).…”

Section: Theoretical Considerations Phase Space Reconstructionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This discovery of chaotic dynamics of the atmosphere spelled doom for long-term weather forecasting i.e. the best one can hope to achieve is to predict the weather a few days in advance [2] and that the atmosphere might have an intrinsic limit of predictability [3]. After further research, scientists estimate that even with near-perfect computer models and measurements, they could only forecast the day-to-day weather two to three weeks into the future while average weekly weather is less chaotic and monthly average conditions are even more predictable.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effect of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the Predictability of Rainfall, Temperature and Solar Radiation in Port Harcourt, Nigeria

Ev¹

2020

PSBJ

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This research applies the tools of statistical analysis and nonlinear dynamics on rainfall, average temperature and solar radiation records over Port Harcourt, Nigeria, so as to quantify the signatures of chaos and analyze the trend of predictability of the weather over the last three decades. Quantifying the degree of chaos and the predictability of a dynamical system like weather time series is carried out by computing the largest Lyapunov exponents and then taking the inverse to get the predictability of the system. Rosenstein's algorithm was deployed in evaluating the yearly values of the largest Lyapunov exponents and predictability for each data set and the results obtained were subjected to Correlation analysis, Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator so as to estimate the trends and relationship between the predictability of these parameters and the total CO 2 emissions recorded in the region over the three decade period. The results obtained show that the trends in the Lyapunov exponents and predictability of rainfall, average temperature and solar radiation in Port Harcourt are all significant; with the relationship between the predictabilities of the meteorological variables and the annual Total CO 2 emissions found to have a decreasing trend. This implies the prevalence of fluctuating and extreme weather as well as failure in the accurate short-term prediction of the weather over Port Harcourt in the near future as a result of greenhouse gas emissions from oil exploration and refining activities.

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Section: Theoretical Considerations Phase Space Reconstructionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the Predictability of Rainfall, Temperature and Solar Radiation in Port Harcourt, Nigeria

Ev¹

2020

PSBJ

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Mechanisms of abrupt climate change of the last glacial period

Clement¹,

Peterson²

2008

Reviews of Geophysics

316

246

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More than a decade ago, ice core records from Greenland revealed that the last glacial period was characterized by abrupt climate changes that recurred on millennial time scales. Since their discovery, there has been a large effort to determine whether these climate events were a global phenomenon or were just confined to the North Atlantic region and also to reveal the mechanisms that were responsible for them. In this paper, we review the available paleoclimate observations of abrupt change during the last glacial period in order to place constraints on possible mechanisms. Three different mechanisms are then reviewed: ocean thermohaline circulation, sea ice feedbacks, and tropical processes. Each mechanism is tested for its ability to explain the key features of the observations, particularly with regard to the abruptness, millennial recurrence, and geographical extent of the observed changes. It is found that each of these mechanisms has explanatory strengths and weaknesses, and key areas in which progress could be made in improving the understanding of their long‐term behavior, both from observational and modeling approaches, are suggested. Finally, it is proposed that a complete understanding of the mechanisms of abrupt change requires inclusion of processes at both low and high latitudes, as well as the potential for feedbacks between them. Some suggestions for experimental approaches to test for such feedbacks with coupled climate models are given.

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The general circulation of the atmosphere: an evolving problem

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

Effect of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the Predictability of Rainfall, Temperature and Solar Radiation in Port Harcourt, Nigeria

Effect of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the Predictability of Rainfall, Temperature and Solar Radiation in Port Harcourt, Nigeria

Mechanisms of abrupt climate change of the last glacial period

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