The GDP-Temperature relationship: Implications for climate change damages

Newell, Richard G.; Prest, Brian C.; Sexton, Steven

doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102445

Cited by 138 publications

(158 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…The results highlight a negative effect of an increase in temperatures on per capita GDP growth for poor countries: a 1°C increase in temperature in a given year reduces poor countries' economic growth by 1.3%, an effect driven mainly by a reduction in agricultural output, and less by industrial output and political instability. However, as recently showed by Newell et al (2018), the idea that temperature affects mainly economic growth instead of the level of GDP is not yet well understand by the current literature. Yet, the distinction is relevant because growth effects cumulate over time, while level effects have mainly transitory effects, thus implying different long-run impacts of global warming.…”

Section: Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 94%

“…Secondly, it is preferable to conduct the empirical analysis on the basis of separate samples for poor and middle-income countries, especially in consideration of the quite different importance of the agricultural sector for the economy. Thirdly, the role of non-linear effects of weather on agricultural productivity, and thus indirectly on emigration, has to be given greater attention, especially in light of the burgeoning recent literature on weather impacts on economic outcomes (see Burke at al., 2015b;Newell et al 2018). For example, Cai et al (2016) find that an increase in temperature positively affects emigration in agriculture-dependent countries in a non-linear fashion.…”

Section: Theoretical Considerationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change and migration: Is agriculture the main channel?

Falco

Galeotti

Olper

2019

Global Environmental Change

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Migration and climate change are two of the most important challenges the world currently faces. They are connected as climate change may stimulate or hinder migration. One of the sectors strongly affected by climate change is agriculture, which is the source of income for most of the world's poor. Climate change may affect agricultural productivity and hence migration because of its impact on average temperatures and rainfall and because it increases the frequency and intensity of weather shocks. In this paper we use data on 108 countries from 1960 to 2010 to analyze the relationship between weather variations, changes in agricultural productivity and international migration. We find that negative shocks to agricultural productivity caused by climate fluctuations significantly increase emigration from developing countries, an especially strong impact in poor countries but less so in middle income countries. These results are robust to the definitions of the poor country sample, and to several checks and alternative explanations suggested by the literature. Importantly, our results point to a causal interpretation of the agricultural channel to explain the climate changemigration nexus.

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Section: Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Theoretical Considerationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and migration: Is agriculture the main channel?

Falco

Galeotti

Olper

2019

Global Environmental Change

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“…In our main specification, we assign weights of 1/2 to both damage channels (

0.5

) based on the principle of insufficient reason, which accounts for the fact that the empirical evidence on damage channels is only tentative. In our uncertainty quantification, we specify a uniform distribution with end points corresponding to full weight on the pure levels (

1

) and growth (

0

) specifications, respectively ( 49 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic impacts of tipping points in the climate system

Dietz

Rising

Stoerk

et al. 2021

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

112

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Climate scientists have long emphasized the importance of climate tipping points like thawing permafrost, ice sheet disintegration, and changes in atmospheric circulation. Yet, save for a few fragmented studies, climate economics has either ignored them or represented them in highly stylized ways. We provide unified estimates of the economic impacts of all eight climate tipping points covered in the economic literature so far using a meta-analytic integrated assessment model (IAM) with a modular structure. The model includes national-level climate damages from rising temperatures and sea levels for 180 countries, calibrated on detailed econometric evidence and simulation modeling. Collectively, climate tipping points increase the social cost of carbon (SCC) by ∼25% in our main specification. The distribution is positively skewed, however. We estimate an ∼10% chance of climate tipping points more than doubling the SCC. Accordingly, climate tipping points increase global economic risk. A spatial analysis shows that they increase economic losses almost everywhere. The tipping points with the largest effects are dissociation of ocean methane hydrates and thawing permafrost. Most of our numbers are probable underestimates, given that some tipping points, tipping point interactions, and impact channels have not been covered in the literature so far; however, our method of structural meta-analysis means that future modeling of climate tipping points can be integrated with relative ease, and we present a reduced-form tipping points damage function that could be incorporated in other IAMs.

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“…Elsewhere, evidence has shown that temperature matters. Studies by Akram (2013), Dell et al (2012), Holtermann & Rische (2020, Kahn et al (2019), Kalkuhl &Wenz (2018), andNewell et al (2018) have shown that economic growth tends to be lower for hotter and poorer countries or regions. A few studies (Abidoye & Odusola, 2015;Baarsch et al, 2020;Lanzafame, 2012;Odusola & Abidoye, 2017) have acknowledged the impact of temperature on economic growth in Africa.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

CO2 emissions and economic growth: Assessing the heterogeneous effects across climate regimes in Africa

Espoir

Mudiangombe

Bannor

et al. 2022

Science of The Total Environment

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The GDP-Temperature relationship: Implications for climate change damages

Cited by 138 publications

References 67 publications

Climate change and migration: Is agriculture the main channel?

Climate change and migration: Is agriculture the main channel?

Economic impacts of tipping points in the climate system

CO2 emissions and economic growth: Assessing the heterogeneous effects across climate regimes in Africa

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