The futures of the University of Tehran using causal layered analysis

Abstract

Purpose Higher education and universities have faced unprecedented and ubiquitous changes. The University of Tehran or “UT,” as the leading university in Iran, is not immune to these changes. The purposes of this study is to investigate the current situation and future of the UT and gain insights and possible responses to changes that suit its strengths and potential to progress in an increasingly competitive, complex environment with uncertainties. It identifies deep fundamental underpinnings of the issue and highlights them for policymakers to formulate strategies and future vision of the UT. Design/methodology/approach Causal layered analysis (CLA) was applied as a framework and the data collected from different sources such as literature reviews, content analysis of rules, regulations and master plans of the university and coded interviews of four different groups of university stakeholders were analyzed. The current system of UT, as well as hidden beliefs, that maintains traditional perceptions about university was mapped. Next, by applying a new recursive process and reverse CLA order, new CLA layers extracted through an expert panel, the layers of CLA based on new metaphors to envision future of UT were backcasted. Findings The results from CLA layers including litany, system, worldview and metaphor about the current statue of UT show disinterest and inertia against changes, conservative, behind the times and traditional perceptions, and indicate that the UT system is mismatched to the needs of society and stakeholders in the future. The authors articulated alternative perspectives deconstructed from other worldviews so there are new narratives that reframe the issues at hand. The results show that to survive in this fast-paced revolution and competition in higher education, UT should develop scenarios and formulate new strategies. Research limitations/implications The authors had limited access to a wide range of stakeholders. As the UT is a very big university with so many faculties and departments, to access a pool of experts and top policymakers who were so busy and did not have time to interview inside and outside of university was very hard for the research team. The authors also had limitation to access the internal enactments and decisions of the trustee board of the UT and the financial balance sheets of the university. Originality/value In this paper, by mixing different methods of futures studies, the authors have shown how to move forward while understanding the perspectives of stakeholders about the future of UT by a new recursive process and reverse CLA order. A supplementary phase was added to improve CLA and to validate the method and results, which were ignored in previous studies.

Expanding horizons for the future with an open educational model for complex thinking: external and internal validation

“…CLA is a methodology that has been used to gain a deeper understanding of a complex problem. It aims to be a tool that allows for extending the analysis and interpretation of social issues based on the opinions of its actors (Baradaran Ghahfarokhi et al. , 2018).…”

“…For higher education, making changes to educational models is challenging, given that they are immersed in complex environments. In this context, plans, programs and procedures that were useful in the past become obsolete, requiring an analysis of the opportunities and challenges that will arise in the future because of new needs (Baradaran Ghahfarokhi et al, 2018). Increasingly, institutions of higher education seek to equip students with the knowledge and skills to foster leaders capable of addressing challenges in environmental, social and economic settings through interdisciplinary collaboration and innovative solutions (Koivunen et al, 2023).…”

“…CLA is a methodology that has been used to gain a deeper understanding of a complex problem. It aims to be a tool that allows for extending the analysis and interpretation of social issues based on the opinions of its actors (Baradaran Ghahfarokhi et al, 2018). This method is described as an iceberg with different layers: at the top level are the litany (problems and trends), beneath which are the systemic causes (interpretation of data), followed by the worldview (which either supports or challenges the social structure) and the metaphor or myth (constituting deep stories or archetypes) (Inayatullah, 2004).…”

“…For higher education, making changes to educational models is challenging, given that they are immersed in complex environments. In this context, plans, programs and procedures that were useful in the past become obsolete, requiring an analysis of the opportunities and challenges that will arise in the future because of new needs (Baradaran Ghahfarokhi et al. , 2018).…”

A policy prioritization framework using causal layered analysis and MCDM: case study of Iran’s environmental policies

“…Farrow (2019) examines the past 5000 years of artificial intelligence and applies the future research methodology CLA with a genealogical analysis. Baradaran Ghahfarokhi et al (2018) have shown how to move forward while understanding the perspectives of stakeholders about the future of University of Tehran by a new recursive process and reverse CLA order. Similar models are also presented for in-depth analysis, such as the Joseph Voros layers model (Voros, 2008) or Slaughter High-level Typology for categorizing all kinds of futures researches from the popular to the epistemology level (Slaughter, 2002).…”