The Future of Transatlantic Alliance: Global and Regional Security

Abstract

The beginning of the post-Cold War era and the emergence of the unipolar world with the USA as the sole hegemon in the system led to a debate about the transatlantic alliance between the USA and Europe. Would the alliance survive the annihilation of the common enemy? Although the debate is not as lively as it was 30 years ago, the same question arises frequently almost after every major international event. Can we give a definitive answer to the question? If not, why? This paper first contextualizes the main camps of the debate with reference to three criteria to uncover the root causes of divergence among analysts: scope of observed change, theoretical lenses, and the level of analysis. I argue that scholars disagree over the answers because of the meaning they attribute to systemic change in IR, preferred theory of IR, and preferred level of analysis. The paper then focuses more on the global and regional security implications of repeated crises. How would a prolonged rift affect regional security in Europe and the globe? It argues that the future is less interesting than either side of the extreme predictions of total divergence or a full security community.