The Future of Soils in the Midwestern United States

Abstract

Soil is the source of the vast majority of food consumed on Earth, and soils constitute the largest terrestrial carbon pool. Soil erosion associated with agriculture reduces crop productivity, and the redistribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) by erosion has potential to influence the global carbon cycle. Tillage strongly influences the erosion and redistribution of soil and SOC. However, tillage is rarely considered in predictions of soil erosion in the U.S.; hence regionwide estimates of both the current magnitude and future trends of soil redistribution by tillage are unknown. Here we use a landscape evolution model to forecast soil and SOC redistribution in the Midwestern United States over centennial timescales. We predict that present‐day rates of soil and SOC erosion are 1.1 ± 0.4 kg ⋅ m−‐2 ⋅ yr−‐1 and 12 ± 4 g ⋅ m−2 ⋅ yr−1, respectively, but these rates will rapidly decelerate due to diffusive evolution of topography and the progressive depletion of SOC in eroding soil profiles. After 100 years, we forecast that 8.8 (+1.9/−2.1) Pg of soil and 0.17 (+0.03/−0.04) Pg of SOC will have eroded, causing the surface concentration of SOC to decrease by 4.4% (+0.9/−1.1%). Model simulations that include more widespread adoption of low‐intensity tillage (i.e., no‐till farming) determine that soil redistribution, SOC redistribution, and surficial SOC loss after 100 years would decrease by ∼95% if low‐intensity tillage is fully adopted. Our findings indicate that low‐intensity tillage could greatly decrease soil degradation and that the potential for agricultural soil erosion to influence the global carbon cycle will diminish with time due to a reduction in SOC burial.

Trends in soil organic matter and topsoil thickness under regenerative practices at the University of Washington student farm

“…Regenerative agricultural methods that build soil health ( Schreefel et al, 2020 ) have also been linked to increased nutrient density in crops ( Montgomery & Biklé, 2022 ). While adopting no-till farming can greatly reduce soil erosion ( Montgomery, 2007 ; Kwang, Thaler & Larsen, 2023 ), to date only limited data are available on how much and how fast regenerative farming systems using all three techniques—no-till, cover crops, and diverse rotations—can increase soil organic matter, and thereby enhance soil fertility. Here we report an analysis of time-trends in soil thickness and organic matter content based on plots at the University of Washington Student Farm (UW Farm), located at the Center for Urban Horticulture (CUH) on the UW Seattle Campus.…”

The uncertain future of mountaintop-removal-mined landscapes 2: Modeling the influence of topography and vegetation

“…Numerical forward modeling of landscape evolution provides a framework for predicting how mass redistribution will modify landscapes in the future (e.g., Tucker and Hancock, 2010;Barnhart et al, 2020b;Hancock and Willgoose, 2021;Kwang et al, 2023). Landscape evolution models have already enabled extensive geomorphic prediction and hypothesis testing in post-mining landscapes (e.g., Willgoose and Riley, 1998;Lowry et al, 2013;Hancock et al, 2000Hancock et al, , 2015.…”