The Future of Radio is Still Digital—But Which One? Expert Perspectives and Future Scenarios for Radio Media in 2015

Abstract

The future of radio is now much less obvious and clear than it appeared ten years ago. Instead of a transition from analog to digital audio broadcasting (DAB), there is a selection alternative technological options for digital audio delivery.This article studies how 43 people in key positions related to the radio industry in four European countries and Canada view the future of radio and which delivery technologies they consider will be most successful. In addition, it analyses the motives and reasons for why certain technologies are seen as more promising. Finally, it presents different future scenarios for radio media. The Future of Radio is Still Digital 1The development of digital audio broadcasting (DAB) began during the late 1980s in an EU-supported Eureka 147 project, originally intended to give the European electronics industry a competitive advantage through the digitalization of radio (Rudin 2006;Lax 2003).When DAB was first introduced in 1995, there was an optimistic and perhaps even deterministic expectation that the superior new digital radio system would replace analog FM radio in a relatively short and smooth transition from analog to digital audio broadcasting (O'Leary 1993;Kozamernik 1995;Mykkänen 1995). The first set-back came in the 1990s, when the USA and Japan decided to develop separate digital radio systems to protect their own national industries (Ala-Fossi & Stavitsky 2003) and DAB lost the chance of becoming a truly worldwide system for digital radio. However, with the support of the World DAB organization and the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), it was widely adopted in Europe and altogether in 28 countries around the world within 10 years of its introduction (World DAB 2005). But even in those countries where DAB was implemented, the adoption rate of the new radio system was low:consumers were not interested in buying new, rather expensive digital receivers as eagerly as expected and the early phase of the classic S-shaped diffusion curve (Rogers 2003) was much less steep than anticipated. Despite the promises of new features, more choice and better (CDquality) sound, the benefits of DAB radio over FM radio were not obvious to everybody (Lax 2003).The basic design of DAB fits better together with large, nationwide broadcasting systems and it has been more successful in countries with strong public service radio organizations (Rudin 1999;Hendy 2000). However, this has not always been the case. According to our studies of the development of digital radio in Europe and Canada, the varied success of DAB has been highly dependent on different policy decisions made by national governments and broadcasters. It seems that where the government and the public service broadcaster have both The Future of Radio is Still Digital 2 been committed to DAB, as in the UK and Denmark, it has been possible also to pull the commercial radio sector in with economic incentives or regulation -or both. Only in these conditions has the consumer interest in DAB radio developed favourably. This is why ...

“Beyond the Clouds”: Insider Perceptions on the Transmutation of Terrestrial Radio in Canada

“…Ala Fossi et al (2007). note that the success of DAB was dependent upon the different policy decisions made by national governments and broadcasters (p.5).…”

“…The first political setback to DAB occurred in the 1990s when the USA and Japan decided to develop separate digital radio systems to "protect their own national industries " (2007:6). However, Ala-Fossi et al (2007) note that with the support of the World DAB organization and the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), it was widely adopted in…”

“…For in addition to these factors, technological progress in other areas of data and content delivery would prove disruptive to the survival of the DAB radio format. In addition to a confusing mixture of DAB formats (DAB eventually became Digital Radio Mondial which begat DRM+ and finally DAB-IP), the rapid development of mobile technologies, MP3 players and software innovations like podcasting led to new habits of music consumption (Ala Fossi et al, 2007;Barry, 2006).…”

“…The source of this is both political and social. Ala-Fossi et al (2007) followed the implementation of DAB across Ireland, United Kingdom, Denmark and Canada in an effort to understand why some radio leaders had deployed DAB and others had not.…”

Introduction: Symposium on Digital Radio: Strategies and Visions

“…Expert Perspectives and Future Scenarios for Radio Media in 2015" (Ala-Fossi et al, 2008). This study was performed in 2005 by the DRACE group (Digital Radio Cultures in Europe: www.drace.org), and the intention was to find out how the future of radio was seen and understood by broadcasters, technology experts, and other professionals working within the radio industry.…”