The future of lithium-ion batteries: Exploring expert conceptions, market trends, and price scenarios

Bajolle, Hadrien; Lagadic, Marion; Louvet, Nicolas

doi:10.1016/j.erss.2022.102850

Cited by 51 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Furthermore, it is essential to note that the learning rate in battery material production may not be as significant as in cell production, indicating differing dynamics in the cost reduction potential. [14] Upon closer examination of Figure 6, it becomes evident that the influence of manganese on the cost deviation is minimal in all the scenarios, with a maximum deviation of no more than 1 %. This finding aligns with the comprehensive study conducted by Mauler et al, [13] which likewise concluded that manganese prices have a marginal effect of only 0.03 %.…”

Section: Comparative Analysis Of Essential Metal Effects On Cost Trendsmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…Consequently, this study excludes recycling as a viable option, at least before 2030. [14,55] Among the post-lithium-ion batteries, solid-state lithium metal anode batteries emerge as the most promising candidate for commercialization in the near future. These batteries offer a higher energy density exceeding 500 Wh/kg cell [56] and enhanced safety compared to existing lithium-ion batteries.…”

Section: Innovations In Battery Technology: Research and Development ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[48] Moreover, transitioning from lithium-ion batteries to solid-state batteries may result in a loss of collective knowledge and expertise. [14] Additionally, the use of ceramics in solid-state batteries poses challenges for recycling. [57] Consequently, postlithium-ion batteries are viewed as a long-term innovation, [56] and the experts interviewed do not anticipate significant market dominance before 2030.…”

Section: Innovations In Battery Technology: Research and Development ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[57] Consequently, postlithium-ion batteries are viewed as a long-term innovation, [56] and the experts interviewed do not anticipate significant market dominance before 2030. [14] Therefore, this study primarily focuses on the research and development of existing lithium-ion batteries. The scope of our knowledge and exploration is limited to the information presented in this section.…”

Section: Innovations In Battery Technology: Research and Development ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The plateauing trends in battery price-time curves in recent years, coupled with the unprecedented increase observed in 2022, [10] have stimulated scholarly discourse on exploring alternative options, such as sodium-ion batteries (NIBs), [11] as well as the potential implications of not meeting the predetermined threshold. [12,13] Conversely, alternative academic and industry sources have provided empirical evidence of future reductions in production costs of lithium-ion batteries, projected to a range of 30-70 US $/kWh cell [13][14][15][16][17][18] by the end of the current decade. This wide range of predictions can be attributed to several factors, including the complexity of lithium-ion battery production, [19,20] the scarcity of data, [21] the volatile prices of essential metals, [22,23] unforeseen crises on a global scale, such as COVID pandemic and Russia-Ukraine war, [11,24] the disparities in the predictive methodologies, [25] and the level of investment in research and development (R&D) budgets.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trajectories for Lithium‐Ion Battery Cost Production: Can Metal Prices Hamper the Deployment of Lithium‐Ion Batteries?

Orangi,

Manjong,

Clos

et al. 2023

Batteries & Supercaps

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Cost‐savings in lithium‐ion battery production are crucial for promoting widespread adoption of Battery Electric Vehicles and achieving cost‐parity with internal combustion engines. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of projected production costs for lithium‐ion batteries by 2030, focusing on essential metals. It explores the complex interplay of factors, including economies of scale, R&D innovations, market dynamics, and metal price trends. The findings highlight the significant role of R&D innovations and economies of scale in substantial cost reductions by 2030, with projected ranges of 21‐28% and 25‐37%, respectively. However, potential cost escalations due to elevated metal prices, particularly for nickel‐cobalt‐containing chemistries, are also cautioned. To address these challenges, the study proposes a strategic shift towards robust LFP chemistry to mitigate cost pressures and meet predefined cost targets. Moreover, by analyzing medium or low metal price trends, the study reveals the potential for significant cost savings, with exceptional scenarios demonstrating up to a remarkable 65% reduction in costs. Given the broad range of cost likelihoods, the study underscores the importance of vertical integration and international cooperation in managing the essential metals supply chain securely. The research has profound implications for policymakers and industry decision‐makers, providing valuable insights into the lithium‐ion battery industry.

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Section: Comparative Analysis Of Essential Metal Effects On Cost Trendsmentioning

confidence: 92%

Section: Innovations In Battery Technology: Research and Development ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Innovations In Battery Technology: Research and Development ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Innovations In Battery Technology: Research and Development ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Trajectories for Lithium‐Ion Battery Cost Production: Can Metal Prices Hamper the Deployment of Lithium‐Ion Batteries?

Orangi,

Manjong,

Clos

et al. 2023

Batteries & Supercaps

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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Insights Into Scalable Technologies and Process Chains for Sulfide‐Based Solid‐State Battery Production

Singer,

Wach,

Jaimez Farnham

et al. 2024

Batteries & Supercaps

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The successful utilization of innovative sulfide‐based solid‐state batteries in energy storage hinges on developing scalable technologies and machinery for upscaling their production. While multiple Gigafactories for lithium‐ion batteries are already operational worldwide, the upscaling of solid‐state batteries exhibiting their full potential remains to be seen in the near future. In this study, the conventional production of lithium‐ion batteries is reconsidered, and the feasibility of seamlessly integrating sulfide‐based solid‐state batteries into the existing process chains is discussed. Scalable technologies and key challenges along the process chain of sulfide‐based solid‐state batteries are accordingly addressed. Experimental investigations yield crucial insights into enabling large‐scale production of sulfide‐based battery components while highlighting remaining challenges from a production perspective. An overview of the roll‐to‐roll machinery housed in microenvironments under an inert atmosphere in the “Sulfidic Cell Production Advancement Center” at the Institute for Machine Tools and Industrial Management at the Technical University of Munich is given.

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Incorporation of Ionic Conductive Polymers into Sulfide Electrolyte‐Based Solid‐State Batteries to Enhance Electrochemical Stability and Cycle Life

Kim,

Choi,

Hwang

et al. 2024

Energy & Environ Materials

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Sulfide‐based inorganic solid electrolytes are promising materials for high‐performance safe solid‐state batteries. The high ion conductivity, mechanical characteristics, and good processability of sulfide‐based inorganic solid electrolytes are desirable properties for realizing high‐performance safe solid‐state batteries by replacing conventional liquid electrolytes. However, the low chemical and electrochemical stability of sulfide‐based inorganic solid electrolytes hinder the commercialization of sulfide‐based safe solid‐state batteries. Particularly, the instability of sulfide‐based inorganic solid electrolytes is intensified in the cathode, comprising various materials. In this study, carbonate‐based ionic conductive polymers are introduced to the cathode to protect cathode materials and suppress the reactivity of sulfide electrolytes. Several instruments, including electrochemical spectroscopy, X‐ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and scanning electron microscopy, confirm the chemical and electrochemical stability of the polymer electrolytes in contact with sulfide‐based inorganic solid electrolytes. Sulfide‐based solid‐state cells show stable electrochemical performance over 100 cycles when the ionic conductive polymers were applied to the cathode.

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The future of lithium-ion batteries: Exploring expert conceptions, market trends, and price scenarios

Cited by 51 publications

References 39 publications

Trajectories for Lithium‐Ion Battery Cost Production: Can Metal Prices Hamper the Deployment of Lithium‐Ion Batteries?

Trajectories for Lithium‐Ion Battery Cost Production: Can Metal Prices Hamper the Deployment of Lithium‐Ion Batteries?

Insights Into Scalable Technologies and Process Chains for Sulfide‐Based Solid‐State Battery Production

Incorporation of Ionic Conductive Polymers into Sulfide Electrolyte‐Based Solid‐State Batteries to Enhance Electrochemical Stability and Cycle Life

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