The future of human benefit knowledge: Notes on a World Brain for the 21st century

Marien, Michael

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2007.03.005

Cited by 8 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…The imperative to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit the effects of climate change beyond 2100 requires innovative and visionary decision making 20,28 and cooperation 29,30 that draws on diverse sources of knowledge 100,101 . For example, new knowledge-action synthesis efforts 18,102 , such as long-range 'Ministries for the Future' 103 , could be tied to existing multilateral or enhanced polycentric institutional frameworks such as the United Nations 32 . Such cross-cultural organisations would evolve to keep ahead of observed and anticipated human migration, food production, disasters, and other climate and ecological challenges 33,34 .…”

Section: Governance and Research For Long Timescalesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100

Lyon¹,

Saupe²,

Smith³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Anthropogenic activity is changing Earth’s climate and ecosystems in ways that are potentially dangerous and disruptive to humans. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere continue to rise, ensuring these changes will be felt for centuries beyond 2100, the current benchmark for prediction. Estimating the effects of past, current, and potential future emissions to only 2100 is therefore shortsighted. Critical problems for food production and climate-forced ‘survival’ migration are projected to arise well before 2100 raising questions regarding the habitability of some regions of the Earth after the turn of the century. To highlight the need for more distant horizon scanning, we model climate change to 2500 under a suite of emission scenarios and quantify associated projections of crop viability and heat stress. Together, our projections show global climate impacts significantly increase after 2100 without rapid mitigation. As a result, projections of climate and its effects on human well-being and associated governance and policy must be framed beyond 2100.

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Section: Governance and Research For Long Timescalesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100

Lyon¹,

Saupe²,

Smith³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…. .in direct touch with all the original thought and research in the world'' [12]. We are still very far from this ideal.…”

Section: Toward An Alternative Paradigm For Futures Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Futures-thinking and identity: Why “Futures Studies” is not a field, discipline, or discourse: a response to Ziauddin Sardar's ‘the namesake’

Marien¹

2010

Futures

Self Cite

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“…Turning this largely invisible private activity into a public good would raise the overall quality of scanning, and recognize and reward good scanners for their contributions to the field (Cinquegrani, 2002;Marien, 2002). This would not require developing something as elaborate as a World Brain (appealing though that idea might be), or requiring all futurists to adopt common software packages (Marien, 2007). We can harvest work that people are already sharing, and deploy the results in a Web 2.0, cloud computing framework (Kü sters et al, 2006).…”

Section: Social Scanning: Making Environmental Scanning Shareablementioning

confidence: 99%

Futures 2.0: rethinking the discipline

Pang

2010

Foresight

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Purpose -This paper seeks to be a thought experiment. If the field of futures were invented today, it asks, what would it look like? What would be its intellectual foundations? Who would it serve and influence? And how would its ideas and insights be put into practice? Design/methodology/approach -It reviews the literatures on experimental psychology and neuroscience to identify biases that affect people's ability to think about and act upon the future, studies of expertise that map the limits of professional judgment, and recent work on the nature of critical challenges of the twenty-first century.Findings -It argues that futurists could develop social software tools, prediction markets, and other technologies to improve the individual and collective accuracy and impact of work. Choice architectures and nudges to lengthen ''the shadow of the future'' of everyday choices made by ordinary people could also be used.Research limitations/implications -The paper argues for new directions in the practice of futures, to make the field better-suited to deal with the challenges confronting an increasingly complex, chaotic, and contingent world. Practical implications -The development of tools to augment professional activity, and adoption of choice architectures and nudges as media for communicating about the future, could improve futures work and its impact, but lay the foundation for other methodological innovations.Originality/value -The paper contributes to the ongoing discussion about where futures should go.

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The future of human benefit knowledge: Notes on a World Brain for the 21st century

Cited by 8 publications

References 9 publications

Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100

Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100

Futures-thinking and identity: Why “Futures Studies” is not a field, discipline, or discourse: a response to Ziauddin Sardar's ‘the namesake’

Futures 2.0: rethinking the discipline

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