The future of flood hydrology in the UK

Lamb, Robert A.; Longfield, Sean; Manson, Susan; Cloke, Hannah; Pilling, Charlie; Reynard, Nick; Sheppard, Owain; Asadullah, Anita; Vaughan, Michael R.; Fowler, Hayley J.; Beven, Keith

doi:10.2166/nh.2022.053

Hydrology Research

2022

DOI: 10.2166/nh.2022.053

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The future of flood hydrology in the UK

Robert A. Lamb

Sean Longfield

Susan Manson

et al.

Abstract: A ‘roadmap’ for the future of UK flood hydrology over the next 25 years has been published, based on a wide-ranging and inclusive co-creation process involving more than 270 individuals and 50 organisations from different sectors and disciplines. This paper highlights key features of the roadmap and its development as a community-owned initiative. The roadmap's relationship with hydrological research and practice is discussed, as is its context within the wider flood risk management innovation landscape, inclu… Show more

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2024

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Cited by 2 publications

References 15 publications

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The developing flood rich period: Science evidence and policy evolution for England. Is it time for place‐based socio‐ecological solutions?

Newson,

Lewin

2024

River Research & Apps

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Flood‐related policies for England are reviewed, updating needs in the light of recent flood‐rich decades and in recognition of future climate trends. This review updates one we published in 2021—a significant year for extreme floods in Europe that were part of a continuing trend; governments now require fast‐track adaptation and resilience policies. Currently, the event signals that increasing spatial and temporal variability of impacts are insufficiently incorporated in hazard/risk assessments. We advocate a transformative policy change towards place‐based strategies, based on the fast‐emerging evidence from three sciences: hydroclimatology, hydrology and hydromorphology. It is vital that policy actions recognise factors such as atmospheric rivers, surface water flooding, and the role of eroded and transported sediments in localised hazards and risks. Located vulnerabilities require local strategies. Attribution of extreme events to climate change, and the recognition and specification of genuinely vulnerable sites, need further refinement and extension into public decision making. Risk assessment needs reform, both from science but also for institutions and individuals, with accompanying reform of flood risk management expenditure. Data analysis of rainfall and river flows need more disciplined clarity; standard sets are needed together with their variable spatial/temporal application. We further recognise sediment hazards (and other entrained debris spread in flood flows) as new and important components for the located risk of present and emerging ‘hot spots’.

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The developing flood rich period: Science evidence and policy evolution for England. Is it time for place‐based socio‐ecological solutions?

Newson,

Lewin

2024

River Research & Apps

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Harnessing long-term gridded rainfall data and microtopographic insights to characterise risk from surface water flooding

Mukherjee,

Rivas Casado,

Ramachandran

et al. 2024

PLoS ONE

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Climate projections like UKCP18 predict that the UK will move towards a wetter and warmer climate with a consequent increased risk from surface water flooding (SWF). SWF is typically caused by localized convective rainfall, which is difficult to predict and requires high spatial and temporal resolution observations. The likelihood of SWF is also affected by the microtopographic configuration near buildings and the presence of resilience and resistance measures. To date, most research on SWF has focused on modelling and prediction, but these models have been limited to 2 m resolution for England to avoid excessive computational burdens. The lead time for predicting convective rainfall responsible for SWF can be as little as 30 minutes for a 1 km x 1 km part of the storm. Therefore, it is useful to identify the locations most vulnerable to SWF based on past rainfall data and microtopography to provide better risk management measures for properties. In this study, we present a framework that uses long-term gridded rainfall data to quantify SWF hazard at the 1 km x 1 km pixel level, thereby identifying localized areas vulnerable to SWF. We also use high-resolution photographic (10 cm) and LiDAR (25 cm) DEMs, as well as a property flood resistance and resilience (PFR) database, to quantify SWF exposure at property level. By adopting this methodology, locations and properties vulnerable to SWF can be identified, and appropriate SWF management strategies can be developed, such as installing PFR features for the properties at highest risk from SWF.

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The future of flood hydrology in the UK

Cited by 2 publications

References 15 publications

The developing flood rich period: Science evidence and policy evolution for England. Is it time for place‐based socio‐ecological solutions?

The developing flood rich period: Science evidence and policy evolution for England. Is it time for place‐based socio‐ecological solutions?

Harnessing long-term gridded rainfall data and microtopographic insights to characterise risk from surface water flooding

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